EUR/USD is widely expected to rise and traders have prepared for the eventuality, the chance the pair holds expected gains is remote.
The 1.25-1.26 area is predicted by a great many speculators whose aim is to sell in order to profit.
That alone makes 1.25-1.26 a high hurdle but it also capped the last major EUR/USD rise in 2018 so there will be a lot of profit taking at a point of huge resistance.
The minimum objective for a correction of EUR/USD's drop in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis was 1.2517, met when an excessively bearish situation that arose during the euro zone crisis was unwound, yet it still capped that rally.
The chance that a rally fuelled by excessive bullish speculation exceeds 2018 highs is small.
Long positions when EUR/USD peaked in 2018 were equivalent of 23 billion dollars.
Longs were equivalent to USD 20.5 billion dollars before EUR/USD's recent 2.8% gain.
Longs hit a record 31.3 billion dollars in August and will probably eclipse that record if EUR/USD reaches 1.25.
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