ANZ Research discusses NZD outlook and adopts a neutral bias in the near-term, while maintains a bearish bias in the medium-term, targeting NZD/USD at 0.61 by Q3.
"Despite the strength witnessed in the NZD since the beginning of the year we maintain our view that the medium term risk for the NZD remains to the downside. Domestic activity has continued to struggle with recent data showing on-going weakness. That said, the latest inflation data has given the NZD an edge over other currencies, and increases the likelihood that the RBNZ remains on hold a little longer....That said, with global growth forecast to slow this year, the NZD (and the AUD) will likely come under pressure," ANZ notes.
"As such, we have a neutral bias on the NZD in the short term as the currency is likely to range sideways until at least the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Statement, but we remain negative on the NZD over the medium term," ANZ adds.