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Sep 17 - 07:24 AM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Downside Danger, But Low Risk, Options Show
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 17 - 05:15 AM

Any deeper EUR/USD declines might pick up pace and the pair become more volatile, but probably not until it breaks 1.0900, option markets suggest.
They also suggest that risk is still low, for now.
DTCC charts, which show existing option positions between now and the end of October, are well stocked with some 150 billion euros in the 1.0900-1.1200 zone, the most likely near-term range.
However, between 108.00-50 in the same period are 17 billion euros, and below 1.0800 just 8 billion.
If option dealers saw a risk of steeper, more rapid declines, they would be forced to cover short positions below 1.0900, but no such price action has materialised.
Also, the cost to cover these strikes would rise, but right now, at least on a one-month expiry horizon, neither EUR puts nor calls carry an implied vol premium, according to risk reversals.
If the perceived risk of lower levels grows, so will demand and prices for EUR put options.

option expiries: Click here

EURUSD risk reversals: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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