Synopsis:

SocGen highlights 1.0725—the 200-day moving average (DMA)—as a critical support zone for EUR/USD, following the pair’s failure to break strong resistance at 1.0950. While the uptrend is not reversing, momentum indicators suggest a potential pause or pullback in the near term.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Rally Stalls Below 1.0950 Resistance ⛔️

• EUR/USD surged earlier in the month but struggled to break above 1.0950, triggering a mild correction.

• This zone is now seen as a firm technical ceiling unless fresh bullish catalysts emerge.

2️⃣ 200-DMA at 1.0725 Now Key Support 🔻

• The 200-day moving average (currently at 1.0725) is viewed as critical near-term support.

• A clear break below could open the door for deeper retracement.

3️⃣ Momentum Slowing, Not Reversing ⚖️

• MACD is challenging its trigger line, suggesting fading upside momentum, but not signaling a trend reversal.

• Price action implies a potential pause in bullish momentum, not necessarily a broader downturn.

Conclusion:

SocGen sees 1.0725 (200-DMA) as the technical line in the sand for EUR/USD following a sharp rally and rejection at 1.0950. While momentum is cooling, the broader trend remains intact. Traders should watch the 200-DMA as a pivot, with a break potentially leading to deeper corrective moves.