The AUD/USD chart is bullish, but factors such as August seasonality call into question the likelihood of further gains.
AUD/USD closed above the 0.7133 Fibonacci level in July, a 61.8% retracement of the 0.8136 to 0.5551 (2018 to 2020) drop, unmasking the 0.7516 Fibonacci level, 76.4% of the same decline.
However, AUD/USD's August performance since 2000 shows it has fallen in 15 of the past 20 years.
Seasonality should not be considered in isolation, but combined with other factors it can be a useful tool.
In times of uncertainty, funds usually flow out of the Australian dollar.
Australia's open and export-heavy economy is vulnerable to global trade tensions nL1N2F9037.
A plot of the AUD/USD daily returns since the start of 2020 shows the Australian dollar has been much more volatile compared with the USD index.
It also reveals AUD/USD has been susceptible some brutal daily collapses, meaning it is not an ideal candidate to shelter from the coronavirus pandemic's effects.
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