• USD net spec short flips to long $4.567 in Sept 13-19 period; $IDX +0.51%

• EUR$ -0.67% in Sep 13-19 period, specs -11,099 contract, now +101,981

• Hawkish Fed posturing at Fed hold Wednesday pushed EUR lwr in current period

• $JPY +0.55%, specs -2,906 contract as pair hovers near 2023 highs

• Dogfight b/w bulls & bears as longs profit, new longs eye US-JY yield diffs

• GBP$ -0.87% in period, specs -12,491 contracts on less-hawkish BoE rate view

• Weak BoE data, recent hold hints at further GBP weakness

• AUD$ (+0.54%), $CAD (-0.9%) sold aggressively despite higher commod prices

• BTC +4.29% in period, specs -635 contracts; higher Fed rate musing stir long unwind

• Uptrend now finding buyers on dips toward the rising daily tenkan

• Back by 2023's highs slightly below upper 21- and 30-day Bollis

• Main topside targets 150 big fig by 10-day week Bolli, 2023's channel top

• Yet to see a new higher daily RSI high to signal a breakout

• That due to slow, low volatility grind higher since Sept. 6

• Uptrend's ok unless the 30-DMA and kijun, 146.72/45 last, are closed below

For more click on FXBUZ

• EUR/USD opened NY near 1.0635 after hitting a 6-month low overnight

• Pair rallied as US yield US2YT=RR drops extended after S&P PMI data

• US$ softened, USD/CNH fell to 7.2950 on D3 & equities ESv1 rallied

• EUR/USD hit 1.06715 on EBS, pair dipped & sat near 1.0655 late

• Comments from Fed officials help lift yields, US$ to weigh on EUR/USD

• Pair was down -0.09% late in the day and tech signals were mixed

• Monthly RSI falling but another daily long legged doji formed

• US PCE data Sept. 29 will likely be on investors minds next week

• For more click on FXBUZ

Danske Bank maintains a modestly bearish outlook on AUD/USD, forecasting the pair at 0.64 by year-end. The bank believes the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate hiking cycle has likely concluded and anticipates the pair to follow a downward-sloping trajectory in the 12M horizon.

Key Points:

1. RBA’s Stance: The RBA held rates in September, concluding the rate-hiking cycle. Despite speculation of additional hikes due to August's employment growth, Danske Bank remains skeptical of any further materialization.

2. Commodity Prices Influence: The recent surge in commodity prices, particularly energy, is primarily supply-driven, casting doubt on its persistence. While it has bolstered Australian terms of trade, the sustainability of this support is uncertain.

3. Fed’s Monetary Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve’s policy and the relative strength of the US economy play pivotal roles in shaping AUD/USD. While no further rate hikes from the Fed are anticipated, the buoyant outlook for the US economy could sustain higher US rates for a prolonged period.

Analysis:

• For Forex Traders:

  • Market Positioning: Traders should account for the possibility of a sustained bearish trajectory for AUD/USD, particularly in light of prevailing economic conditions and central bank policies.

• For Investors:

  • Investment Strategy: Investors should consider the forecast in framing their investment strategies and hedge against potential downsides in the AUD, with careful consideration of the evolving economic landscape.

• For Policy Analysts:

  • Central Bank Policies: Analysts need to focus on the ongoing dynamics between the RBA’s and the Fed’s policy stances and their implications on currency values.

The Takeaway:
Danske Bank’s projection for AUD/USD to reach 0.64 by year-end is based on the assessment of central bank policies and market conditions. The influence of transient commodity price movements and the potential continuation of higher US rates, coupled with the conclusion of RBA’s rate hiking, are pivotal elements underpinning this outlook. Market participants need to closely monitor developments in these areas to navigate the evolving market landscape effectively.

• $CAD pared early NY dip slide -0.13% at 1.3466; Fri range 1.3483-24

• Commod rise, oil +0.8%, copper +0.4%; CA yields +6bp in 2-10-yr

• BoC rate expectations mirror Fed, perhaps 1-more hike in 2023 IRPR

• Supt at lower 21-d Bolli/Fri low 1.3424, 100-DM 1.3399, Sep 19 low 1.3380

• Res Daily Tenkan line 1.3486, 10-DMA 1.3505, 1.3538 50% of 1.3695-1.3380

Bank of America (BofA) signals potential near-term bearishness for the British Pound (GBP) based on their quantitative and technical analyses. They recommend positioning for a weaker GBP through the purchase of out-of-the-money (OTM) put options.

Key Points:

1. Quantitative Analysis:

   • GBP Breakout Signals: Persistent bearish trends in GBP/USD positioning and a declining GBP yield relative to the rest of the G10 FX result in bearish GBP breakout signals.
   • Volatility Market Response: The volatility market is starting to recognize these signals. GBP put skew (the difference in implied volatility between out-of-the-money puts and calls) could widen further.
   • Strategy Recommendation: BofA suggests purchasing OTM GBP put options. This strategy could benefit from both a declining GBP spot rate and increased volatility resulting from a wider skew.

2. Technical Analysis:

   • GBP/USD Outlook: A head and shoulders pattern in GBP/USD suggests a potential decline to the 1.21/1.2075 range in Q4. BofA recommends selling on rallies as long as the rate remains below 1.2640.
   • GBP vs. AUD and EUR:
     • EUR/GBP is exhibiting signs of a potential bottom, with an attempt to breach trend line resistance and rally in Q4.
     • GBPAUD's technical indicators and patterns hint at medium-term downside movement.

Analysis:

• For Forex Traders:
  • Trade Positioning: Given the bearish outlook, traders might consider shorting GBP or purchasing GBP puts to capitalize on anticipated movements.
• For Investors:
  • Currency Exposure: Those with significant exposure to GBP should be aware of the potential near-term downside risks and might look to hedge their positions.
• For Policy Analysts:
  • Economic Implications: A weakening GBP could have ramifications for the UK's trade balance and economic health, warranting close monitoring.

The Takeaway:
BofA's combined quantitative and technical analyses suggest bearish tendencies for the GBP in the near term. Market participants should consider these insights when making GBP-related decisions in the coming quarter.

• Sept S&P Global PMIs mixed, services slowed from August

• New orders at lowest since Dec.; US econ growth may be slowing

• US yields US2YT=RR stay pinned near session lows, US$ softens

• AUD/USD hit a new session high of 0.64655, a 2-session high

• Monthly bull hammer & rising daily RSI are concerns for shorts

• AUD/USD hold above 10- & 21-DMAs reinforce concerns for shorts

• For more click on FXBUZ

MUFG indicates potential vulnerability of the Japanese yen (JPY) to further declines after the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) recent policy meeting. With USD/JPY surpassing the 148.00 level, market observers are on high alert for possible interventions from Japan to buttress the yen.

Key Points:

1. Recent Yen Movements:

   • JPY experienced additional depreciation post the BoJ's policy assembly.
   • The USD/JPY exchange rate escalated past the 148.00 benchmark.

2. BoJ's Policy Stance:

   • As anticipated, the BoJ maintained their existing policy configurations.
   • Focus shifted swiftly to Governor Ueda's press briefing to gauge any alterations in policy guidance.

3. Potential Yen Trajectory:

   • The yen may experience more dips in the short run.
   • Yet, the ascent of USD/JPY could be mitigated due to the amplified probability of Japanese intervention to prop up the yen.

Analysis:

• For Forex Traders:
  • Positioning: Traders should remain cautious of the yen's trajectory, factoring in the potential for Japanese intervention in their trading strategies.
• For Policy Analysts:
  • BoJ's Role: The recent inaction from BoJ and its implications on the yen's movements could offer insights into Japan's monetary strategy.
• For Investors:
  • Currency Dynamics: Those invested in JPY or linked assets should evaluate the potential repercussions of the yen's weakening and the looming threat of Japanese intervention on their portfolios.

The Takeaway:
The yen is on a downward trend after the BoJ's latest policy decision, placing it on a path of potential weakness. The continued rise of USD/JPY may be curtailed, however, due to the looming possibility of intervention by Japan. MUFG suggests that market participants should remain vigilant of these dynamics in the coming days.

ANZ has taken profit on their short GBP/CAD trade, achieving a 1.43% gain, and continues to maintain a bullish position on USD/JPY with a target set at 150. The bank cites factors like Japan's economic struggles and the recent hawkish stance from the Fed as reasons behind their viewpoint.

Key Points:

1. Trade Positions:

   • ANZ booked a profit on their short GBP/CAD position.
   • The bank remains bullish on USD/JPY with a target of 150.

2. Japan's Economic Landscape:

   • BoJ's decision to not change policy settings was expected.
   • Japan's economic activity continues to be weak with Q2 GDP displaying reduced consumption.
   • Real wages in Japan are in a deep negative trajectory.

3. Bullish Factors for USD/JPY:

   • The hawkish stance from the Fed has created unfavorable yield differentials for the JPY.
   • Continuous concerns over China's economic future, marked by the USD/CNH surpassing the 7.31 mark, will likely suppress demand for JPY.
   • Anticipations regarding an early termination of Japan's negative interest rates could be misplaced, setting the stage for a potential boost in USD/JPY in future trading sessions.

Analysis:

• For Forex Traders:
  • Positioning: Traders should consider ANZ's perspective when planning their trades, particularly their bullish outlook on USD/JPY.
• For Policy Analysts:
  • Japan's Struggles: Analysts should evaluate the long-term implications of Japan's economic struggles on global currency dynamics.
• For Investors:
  • Currency Outlook: Investors with exposures to JPY or USD should be aware of the factors that might influence the USD/JPY pair and plan accordingly.

The Takeaway: With Japan's sluggish economic performance and the recent hawkish pause from the Fed, ANZ anticipates a rising USD/JPY. The bank's profit-taking from its short GBP/CAD position and its continued commitment to a bullish USD/JPY stance provide insights into the current currency market dynamics.

• AUD/USD rallied 0.64035-0.6448 overnight, NY opened near that high

• Gains aided by softer US yields US2YT=RR weighing on the US$ a bit

• USD/CNH fall to 7.2959, equity ESv1 & iron-ore gains helped buoy AUD/USD

• Yen sales rallying AUD/JPY above 95.55 also underpinned AUD/USD

• AUD/USD technical are leaning slightly bullish at the moment

• Pair above 10- & 21-DMAs, daily RSI rising, monthly bull hammer in place

• AUD/USD longs likely need above 0.6525/35 in order to gain greater control

• September S&P Global manufacturing, services, composite PMIs are risks in NY

• Risk from comments from Fed's Cook, Collins, Kashkari, Daly for Friday

• For more click on FXBUZ

• Strong gains towards the 200-day moving average, 0.8611

• Speed and magnitude of gains argue for a pullback

• High risk trade, we are short at market

• Initially looking for a minimum 0.8650, 23.6% Fibo off 0.8493-0.8699

• Our stop is tight above the 200DMA

• Daily RSI is over bought and positive momentum massively stretched

• Close above the 200WMA, 0.8676, a major risk to our trade

For more click on FXBUZ

• BOJ keeps ultra-loose policy, dovish guidance on outlook nL1N3AY00B

• Japan's Aug inflation stays above BOJ target for 17th month nL4N3AW13P

• USD/JPY could well soar due to huge Fed/BOJ gap nL1N3AY0J2

• It has seen a 147.50-148.42 range on Friday, EBS data shows

• Focus on new 2023 148.46 high posted Thursday, Oct 31 2022 148.84 EBS high

• It is on course for its 5th weekly close above 146.11 Fibo nL1N3AY0HE

• USD/JPY, EUR/JPY usually rise in September nL1N3AH0Q6nL1N3AH2TR

• USD/JPY is on course for its fifth close above the major broken 146.11 Fibo

• 146.11 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the 151.94 to 127.22 (2022 to 2023) fall

• The likelihood is growing for bigger gains to Oct 31 2022 148.84 EBS high

• 14-week momentum remains positive, reinforcing the bullish structure

• EUR/JPY sees a 157.18-158.26 range, according to EBS prices, on Friday

• USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Previous update nL1N3AX0KR

• Cable plumbed 1.2269 intra-day low after UK August retail sales data release

• Retail sales up 0.4% MM vs 0.5% f/c (July retail sales revised up by 0.1%)

• UK Sept flash PMIs due 0830 GMT; services PMI f/c at 49.2 vs 49.5 in August

• Worse than expected UK services PMI might depress GBP/USD towards 1.2231

• 1.2231 was Thursday's six-month low, after BoE kept interest rates unchanged

• Recovery rally from 1.2231 topped out around 1.2305 (pre-SNB hold shock low)

• FX option strikes expire 10-am New York on Friday September 22

• EUR/USD: 1.0600 (800M), 1.0650-60 (819M), 1.0700 (1BLN), 1.0730 (921M)

• 1.0750 (1.5BLN). USD/CHF: 0.8875 (443M), 0.8925 (324M)

• GBP/USD: 1.2225 (370M), 1.2250 (1.1BLN),1.2285 (405M), 1.2300 (781M)

• 1.2325 (545M), 1.2350 (511M), 1.2375 (545M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8650 (406M), 0.8840 (611M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6400 (277M), 0.6500 (446M), 0.6520 (230M), 0.6580 (341M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3385 (916M), 1.3400 (727M), 1.3450 (584M), 1.3465 (320M)

• USD/JPY: 147.00 (676M), 147.50 (627M), 148.00 (472M), 149.00 (515M)

For more click on FXBUZ

• AUD/USD inches higher to 0.6427, grasping to reach 21 DMA

• Fri close above 21 DMA 0.6430 would give longs breathing room

• Conversely, closing below 0.6399 engages bearish channel

• Very elevated UST yields, unchanged BOJ, keeping USD well-bid

• Asia stocks mostly turn positive, led by China and Hong Kong

• China issues new measures to support private economy nB9N3AU015

• For more click on FXBUZ

• AUD/USD opened -0.48% at 0.6415 after weak equities and commodities weighed nL1N3AX2V7nL1N3AX0RX

• It fell to 0.6403 early Asia when Asian equity markets swooned at the open

• AUD/USD recovered after the USD/CNY fix came in extremely low nL1N3AY038

• AUD/USD was also underpinned by AUD/JPY buying after BOJ unchanged nL1N3AY06S

• Heading into the afternoon the AUD/USD is trading 0.6420/25

• Resistance is at 0.6430/35 where the 10 & 21-day MAs converge

• Key resistance is at the double-top at 0.6522

• Support is at the double bottom at 0.6358

• AUD/USD vulnerable while risk assets continue to remain under pressure

• For more click on FXBUZ

RBC Capital Markets, reports an almost unanimous consensus against any change in policy parameters in the upcoming BoJ meeting early Friday. Surprisingly, despite muted expectations and persistent trends, analysts remain bullish on JPY.

Key Points:

1. Muted Expectations for Change:
   • After the surprise widening of the YCC band in July, there is a consensus for no change in any policy parameters in the next announcement.
   • Only four out of 46 respondents expect a policy change in the remainder of this calendar year, with April 2024 being the most anticipated month for a change.
   • Eleven analysts do not expect any further policy changes this year or the next.
2. Continued Bullish Outlook on JPY:
   • Despite the response to the July policy shift and the continual rally of USD/JPY, analysts maintain a bullish stance on JPY, a stance RBC finds slightly surprising given the circumstances.

Analysis:

• For Forex Traders:
  • JPY Positions: Traders should observe the market sentiment closely, considering the bullish outlook on JPY amidst seemingly stable BoJ policies.
• For Policy Analysts:
  • Policy Stability: Analysts should consider the implications of the stable policy outlook on the broader economic landscape and currency markets.
• For Investors:
  • Market Dynamics: Investors should factor in the persistent bullish sentiment on JPY and the lack of anticipated policy shifts when making investment decisions.

The Takeaway: The BoJ meeting scheduled for early Friday is surrounded by consensus expectations of policy stability, with minimal anticipation of changes this year or the next. However, the prevailing bullish sentiment on JPY, despite such stability and the ongoing USD/JPY rally, is a notable factor for market participants to consider in their analysis and strategy development.

• EUR/USD opens unchanged around 1.0660 after surviving downside tests

• Hawkish ECB comments and rise in EZ yields helped EUR/USD off lows nL1N3AX0MSnL1N3AX0KN

• Late fall in US 2-year yield from early highs also took edge off USD

• Support @ 38.2 of 0.9528/1.1276 move @ 1.0608 validated by bounce from 1.0617

• Resistance is at the 10-day MA at 1.0688 and 21-day MA at 1.0740

• EUR/USD likely to consolidate during Asian session

• BOJ decision later today could spark volatility in EUR/JPY

• For more click on FXBUZ

• AUD/USD opens -0.48% after stocks and commodities fell on hawkish Fed shift nL1N3AX2V7nL1N3AX0RX

• AUD/USD closed below 10 & 21-day MAs which converge around 0.6430

• Close below 0.6430 suggests bearish bias and a test of lower end of range

• Range in AUD/USD has been 0.6358/0.6522 for past three weeks

• A break below 0.6358 targets the May 31 low at 0.6170

• Resistance is at 0.6430 and the double top at 0.6522

• Key in Asia will be moves in the USD/CNH and Asian equities

• The BOJ decision could spark some volatility if JPY-crosses

• For more click on FXBUZ

ING anticipates potential interventions from Japan in the Forex market as USD/JPY approaches 150. This prediction comes on the heels of this week's notably hawkish FOMC, which kept the dollar in demand across various sectors.

Key Points:

1. Yield Curve and Dollar Strength: The entire US yield curve has seen an upwards shift of 15bp, contributing to broad dollar strength, particularly impacting commodity and 'growth' currencies. The Australian dollar experienced notable softening overnight.

2. Potential for Intervention: ING expects increased verbal interventions from Tokyo as the USD/JPY nears 150, with actual intervention likely being triggered as this level approaches.

3. Dollar Bears and US Data: For the dollar to soften, there will need to be negative shifts in US activity data such as rising jobless claims or declining consumer confidence and retail sales. Until such developments, dollar bears will find no relief from the Fed.

Analysis:

• For Forex Traders:
  • USD/JPY Level Monitoring: It's crucial to watch the 150 level in USD/JPY for signs of verbal or actual intervention from Japan, which can bring about significant market volatility.
• For Policy Analysts:
  • Intervention Watch: Observing how and when Japan intervenes will offer insights into its strategic priorities in currency stabilization amidst global economic shifts.
• For Investors:
  • Risk Mitigation: Those holding positions in related assets should assess and manage the risks associated with potential interventions and the ongoing strength of the dollar.

The Takeaway: The hawkish stance from the recent FOMC and the ensuing strength of the dollar has positioned USD/JPY to be closely watched for possible interventions from Japan. Market participants across the board should be vigilant about the developing economic indicators and their impacts on currency valuations, particularly as the USD/JPY approaches the critical 150 level.

The dollar index retreated on Thursday after nearing 2023's peak on post-Fed follow-through, as EUR/USD was steady, USD/JPY and yen crosses fell amid risk-off flows and sterling weakened when the BoEsomewhat surprisingly refrained from raising rates for the first time since December 2021.

EUR/USD fell as far as 1.0617, its lowest since March, but reversed just above the 38.2% Fibo of the 2022-23 uptrend 1.0608, as Treasury yields failed to hold the fresh highs they hit after an unexpected fall in U.S. jobless claims.

Two-yr Treasury yields gave up much of their early gains as the selloff in stocks provided negative feedback as to what higher-for-longer rates could do to asset prices and the wealth effect that feeds into spending, growth and inflation.

There were also ECB policymaker remarks warning rates might need to be raised again at the next meeting.

Sterling was down 0.38% but had recovered from the worst of the day's losses that resulted in a six-month low of 1.2231 that was well below May's swing low and the 61.8% Fibo of this year's recovery.

The day's biggest winner was the haven yen which gained 0.6% against the dollar, 0.5% on the euro and nearly 1% versus sterling and Aussie.

The broadening central bank message, aside from the BoJ's, of keeping rates higher for longer sent stock markets and risk appetite into retreat, with the extraordinarily low-yielding yen a prime funding currency for carry trades.

USD/JPY earlier made a new 2023 high at 148.465 on EBS due to surging Treasury-JGB yield spreads before diving to its lowest in five days amid the risk-off flows.
Ongoing MoF threats to support the yen against excessive volatility and risk management ahead of Friday's BoJ meeting and Japan's CPI report also favored consolidation of the uptrend.

USD/CNH rose 0.07% as worries about global growth given major central banks' higher-for-longer guidance sent Chinese stocks to 10-month lows and weighed on copper.

Other than Japan's August inflation report, Friday's main data events will be UK retail sales and global flash PMI readings for September.

For more click on FXBUZ

• USD/JPY fell 0.6% amid broad risk-off yen gains after Fed's hawkish hold

• Tsy-JGB ylds spreads mostly higher, but risk trades dumped, haven yen bought

• Thur's 148.465-7.32 range on EBS made a new 2023 high, then five-day lows

• But new highs in Treasury yields and spreads over JGB ylds should support

• BoJ seen steady Fri, possibly hinting policy normalization yr-end, next yr

• Long's also worried by MoF's repeated intervention threat reminders

• Need to get past BoJ, Japan CPI Friday to gauge dip-buying bias

• Close below the 30-DMA and kijun at 146.60/45 needed to dim the outlook

• Repeated bearish divergences from daily RSIs yet to be confirmed

• Upside amid MoF angst faces 149 and 149.55 hurdles before 150 big figure

For more click on FXBUZ

• GBP$ ending NorAm -0.35% at 1.23; NorAm range 1.2306-1.2231

• Pair bounces off post-BoE hold lows, as UST yields slide from highs

• Sterling headed lower as BoE joins the hold and high-for-longer crowd

• Bailey pledges inflation vigilance; 5 votes to hold 4 to hike

• Despite late rally, techs hint at further weakness 10-DMA below 200-DMA

• Res at Thursday high 1.2346, 200-DMA 1.2434, 1.2488 50% Fib of 1.2746-1.2331

• Supt 1.2247 lwr 20-hr Bolli, 1.2331 Thurs low, 1.2192 Mar 24 low

• EUR/GBP +0.37% at 0.8668, Thurs range 0.8699-27; ECB rate view more hawkish than BoE EUR friendly