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Sep 08 - 05:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-For EUR/USD Traders Bad News Is Not Good News

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Sep 08 - 03:10 AM

Now traders are extremely long EUR/USD, bad news will have a negative impact. nL1N2G5050

This contrasts with the pattern seen through most of this year's rise, where bad news fuelled EUR demand, helping to build a mammoth long position.

Massive positions are vulnerable during bouts of risk aversion.
It doesn't matter the source of bad news.
U.S. negatives are potentially just as bad as bad news from other centres.
The EUR, once a safer place to put cash, is now a very risky place to park cash.

Longs will be one of the first investments to be pared should risk aversion rise to an intolerable point, and there's been lots of bad news this month.
The tipping point may not be far off.

Longs are extreme.
Traders pared a few longs between Aug.
1 but this only put a small dent in a huge bet that has seriously impacted the bull trend.
The pace of the rally has slowed markedly.
Since the start of August, dips have been much larger than gains to new highs for uptrend.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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