March 4 (Reuters) - The USD/JPY downward trajectory has resumed after Monday's bump up to 151.30. Tests lower appear likely given U.S. President Donald Trump's pronouncements on the Japanese and Chinese currencies , narrower Japan-U.S. yield differentials and haven flows into the yen amid geopolitical tensions and tariff threats.

Granted, Japan also faces the threat of higher U.S. tariffs but has been spared so far. Trump-speak suggesting Japan may be manipulating the yen for export benefit is concerning but USD/JPY has been trending lower of late, falling from a 158.88 high on January 10 and a multi-decade high of 161.96 on July 3, 2024 to 148.56 on February 25.

More downside is now expected with the pair hitting a 148.60 EBS low Tuesday. Stops are eyed below 148.50 and likely trail down as daily lows dating back to October 2024 are tested.

Large money centre banks have suggested moves towards 146.00 and 145.93, the low on October 4. Fibonacci analysis shows 146.95 to be the 61.8% retracement of the September 16-January 10 rise. This level seems to be a target for many speculative players.

Moves even lower may be seen if this Fibo level is pierced decisively. That said, the recent surge in long JPY positions and continuing headlines on U.S. tariffs support erring on the side of caution with more speed bumps possible.

Previous comments , , , , also .
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY Fibo


Speculators mount biggest bet on rising Japanese yen on record:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)