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Jan 04 - 11:55 AM

USD/JPY - Flips From One Extreme To Another - Top Very Likely

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jan 04 - 10:00 AM
  • USD/JPY has rallied from base 20-day Bollinger Bands toward its peak

  • Pair flipping from an oversold situation toward an overbought one

  • While FX traders doubts have grown about U.S. rate path, it's little changed

  • Futures still flag first cut in March and 138bps of easing in 2024

  • One year USD/JPY forward is far out of sync with spot

  • Forward market hints at a deeper slide closer toward 140.00

  • 20-DMA below 200-DMA - sell signal - follows 55-DMA below 100-DMA

  • Easing cycles will support carry trades and yen may be sold to fund them

  • Currencies supported by very high int/rates may attract nL1N3DU0PD

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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