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May 28 - 01:55 PM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Beguiles Bears With Post-PCE Drop

By Christopher Romano  —  May 28 - 12:38 PM

EUR/USD rallied back from a 9-session low on Friday, signaling that its fall earlier in the session below a bull channel base on the daily chart was a false break and boosting the chances of a resumption in the rise that started after the March low.

The dollar initially rallied, causing EUR/USD to fall, after above-forecast core PCE price growth data nL2N2NF13V appeared to reinforce investors' inflation concerns, with U.S. 10-year yields rising and December 2022 eurodollar prices dropping.

As the dollar gained, EUR/USD fell sharply away from the bull channel base and pierced the 21-DMA before stalling just short of the May 17 daily low.

But yields reversed course and turned lower, indicating investors were respecting the Fed's view that higher inflation will be transitory, which put the dollar on the run.

Broad based dollar selling drove EUR/USD sharply higher towards the 10-DMA and back into the bull channel, then nearing flat on the session and resulting in a long-legged daily doji candle.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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