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Nov 22 - 07:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Can Exceed Eurozone Crisis Lows

By Jeremy Boulton  —  Nov 22 - 05:38 AM

With traders still not betting on a decline and economists expecting a rise, EUR/USD, which has lost the support of Switzerland's central bank and is weighed by the withdrawal of stimulus by the Federal Reserve, could drop deeper than it did during the euro zone crisis.

The reluctance of traders to back a drop is amazing.
EUR/USD has fallen a long way since June with traders reducing bets on a rise but not backing a decline.

Perhaps they are listening to economists who think the pair rises.
The most extreme bearish forecast at 1.1000 is conservative and that's a 12-month call. nL1N2SA0IL

The Fed has begun the taper it spoke of in June, which triggered EUR/USD's drop.
And where SNB regularly intervened during the crisis, it's now conspicuous by its absence. nL1N2SA0PK

EUR/USD has plunged under the monthly Ichimoku cloud in November and is set to close the month below it.
Judged by prior breaks, the smallest decline will exceed the most bearish forecast of any economist polled by Reuters.
If any of the other three prior breaks is repeated, EUR/USD will drop below parity. nL1N2SD0KG


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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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