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Nov 02 - 11:55 AM

GBP/USD - Recovery From September's Slide Is In Limbo Ahead Of Fed, BoE

By Content Admin  —  Nov 02 - 10:35 AM
  • Sterling is flat ahead of Wednesday's Fed and BoE on Thursday

  • Tight 1.1480-1525 range so far, propped above 10-, 55-DMAs

  • Trades entirely above daily cloud for first time since Feb

  • But downtrend line from Feb (Ukraine invasion) caps Oct's highs

  • 10-yr gilts-Tsy yields spreads no longer price UK risk premium

  • But BoE rate hikes priced to peak at 4.7% vs 5% in 2023

  • Though late 2023 Fed cut pricing to narrow the spread

  • Fed unlikely today to offer strong guidance before key Dec meeting

  • Will have two jobs and inflation report, etc before then to onboard

  • Fed & BoE to hike 75bp this week, but 75bp fm Fed in Dec favored vs BoE

  • Sept-Nov rebound has corrected the 2022 downtrend's oversold state

  • A daily range above 2022's dn TL at 1.1581 is needed to rise further

  • Weekly close above 1.1634, the 38.2% of 2022's drop, is also needed

  • The 100-DMA at 1.1717 and 50% Fibo of the 1.2665-0327 is at 1.17728

  • Flat daily cloud top at 1.1309 is crucial support

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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