GBP traders are no longer ready for a Brexit-induced drop, and a poorly hedged sterling market could move a lot.
For the pound to rise, traders must bet on a rally and few scenarios support longs.
Bad news is needed for the pound to fall, and if the majority are correct, then Brexit soft or hard is bad; it's just one is much worse than the other.
Traders have spent all year unwinding bets on a sterling drop and are no longer materially short pounds.
Without shorts, there can be no squeeze and with so few shorts, little short covering.
The only situation that can lead to a sustainable rise is for the UK to remain in the European Union.
Option markets have priced out no-deal hitting vols.
Fear of a GBP plummet has been replaced by expectations for a rise during a long delay nL1N21R06F.
Such bullish expectations seem flawed.
A lengthy impasse has done neither UK nor European Union economies any favours, and resolving it means the UK's out.