• USD/SGD retreats to 1.2958 from Wed high 1.2966; STI +0.1%

• Might still end up inside Bollinger uptrend channel at 1.2952

• Tracking USD/JPY movements closely as intervention fears arise

• Ahead of US holiday Friday, some USD longs may trim positions

• Chance of Japan FX officials acting, capitalizing on thin liquidity again

• Singapore private home prices rose again, +0.5% q/q
SGD


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• JPY remain on the back foot, USD/JPY to fresh 40-year high of 162.84 EBS

• Early low 162.54 and suggests downside very limited on strong demand

• Japanese importers, retail/NISA/funds, foreign investor hedges on stock buys

• Barring Japan FX intervention, more upside maybe inevitable

• Some suggest MOF could strike after US jobs report release Thursday

• Specs already eyeing 163.00 break, some talk of option barriers at strike

• Spot up with 162.67 hourly Ichimoku tenkan, kijun 162.41 below

• Hourly cloud 161.97-162.11, importer bids @162.00 on KO-ed option barriers

• Also supportive $1 bln vanilla option expiries today between 161.90-162.10

• EUR/JPY down some from 185.84 high yesterday, Asia 185.48-71 EBS

• Consolidating above 185.26 hourly kijun, 184.89-99 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Some option expiries today at 184.60 and 184.75, between 185.60-70

• CHF/JPY 200.80-201.27 after rally to 201.53 overnight

• Back to 201.03-73 daily Ichimoku cloud, holding above 200.79 hourly kijun

• GBP/JPY 215.18-68 after rally to 215.76 o/n, towards 216.59 peak Apr 30

• AUD/JPY 111.92-112.50 post-rally to 112.61 o/n, in 111.73-113.25 daily cloud

• Pull-back from high but support from 112.06 200-HMA, at 111.93 hourly kijun

• NZD/JPY 92.06-39 post-rally to 92.47 o/n, still sub-92.47-93.07 daily cloud

• BOJ Tankan taken in stride, Japan Inc low-balling USD, EUR assumptions

• Nikkei higher as AI shares bought, JGB yields up on weak yen, fiscal worries

• Related comment , also

• On BOJ Tankan/BOJ , , ,
USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 1.5%, their lowest since June 12

• The benchmark index S&P/ASX 200 index down 0.5%

• Bullion prices extended losses as fading prospects of a permanent U.S.-Iran peace deal boosted expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes [GOL/]

• Gold miners Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources slid 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively

• AXGD down 21% YTD

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• USD/SGD rallies to 1.2951, aiming to reinstate bullish chart bias

• Wed close above current level will engage Bollinger uptrend channel

• Gains seen across most USD/AXJ as rising USD/JPY inspires bulls

• Underpinning the move, UST yields rose Tues; 2y 4.164%, 10y 4.457%

• US Fed fund futures now imply 80% chance of Sept hike

• But risk-on seen in early Asia stocks may limit USD gains; STI +0.3%
SGD


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY as high as 162.67 EBS overnight, Asia so far 162.54-66, bid

• Seems Japan intervention threats increasingly falling on deaf ears

• No doubt lack of action to prompt fresh moves towards 163.00 test

• That said, intervention threat real, some say could come after US jobs data

• MOF maybe considering impact of jobs data on rates, FX, other markets

• Barring such action, USD/JPY looks to remain bid, demand strong

• Japanese importer demand stronger now with 162.00 option barriers KO-ed

• Large option expiries too below between 161.90-162.10 today, total $1 bln

• Retail including NISA demand, foreign investor hedging of stock buys too

• JGB-US Treasury 2-year rate differentials @273 bps, off recent wides

• Rate differential in 10s narrower still, down to 167 bps overnight

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on US economy

• US markets , , ,

• On Japan intervention , BOJ
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.7% wtd as upswing extends into third-consecutive day

• RBNZ Jul 8 monetary policy meeting outcome the dominant factor short term

• Futures pricing implies 74.2% probability of 25 bps hike, dialogue critical

• NZD likely to firm further, break below 0.5627 would reset narrative

• Uncertainty lingers as Iran reiterates will not meet U.S. officials in Qatar

• U.S. Jun non-farm payrolls due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +110k

• Range NZ 0.5674-805, support 0.5627 5580, resistance 0.5991 0.6012 0.6093
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.7% from Tue's low, recovers from near 0.6864 200-DMA

• 0.6834 remains target zone, break below will expediate downswing

• Cotality data reveals AU housing prices entering steep decline

• RBA tightening cycle may have run its course, hawkish rhetoric aside

• Iran reiterates will not be meeting U.S. officials in Doha

• U.S. Jun non-farm payrolls due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +110k

• Overnight range 0.68756-0.6930 support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089
AUD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

JP Morgan highlights its tactical bias for the rest of the week.

"Timing and tactics are now the name of the game; value date rolling into next month is a small tick as disclosure can be pushed out, upcoming illiquidity for the US holiday Friday is a tick to cause maximum discomfort and bang for their buck, NFP is a risk here but could also work in tandem if we see any weakness," JPM notes.

"One should have some short cross yen in the book for the rest of the week (CHFJPY  favourite), look for the 5 big fig fade if just the MOF, in the unlikely case they manage to get Scott on board via the fixed income angle (contagion fears/reserve liquidation) then the scope to stay longer JPY clearly broadens," JPM adds.

(Corrects typo in 1st bullet)

• GBP$ hovers near flat in NY afternoon at 1.3261; NorAm range 1.3277-1.3213

• Cable a tad bid after US JOLTS came in higher off April revision lower

• Despite early NY dip, GBP$ hovers near recent highs in 1.3270s; GBPJPY bid aids GBP rise

• Risk rebound continues Nasdaq +1.6%, amid reduced UK political, fiscal tension

• GBP$ res 1.3277 Tuesday high, 1.3322 daily base line, 1.3402 the 200-DMA

• Supt 1.3233 daily conversion line, 1.3213 Tuesday low, 1.3159 lower 30-d Bolli

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1400 and fell below 1.1390 early but buyers then emerged

• Pair broke 1.1405 despite firmer US yields , wider spreads

• Rally intensified as the USD was sold during the fix & EUR/JPY rallied to 185.84

• Gains in gold, silver, equities & the drop in USD/CNH helped fuel EUR/USD's lift

• The pair hit 1.1437 then neared 1.1425 late, the pair was near flat late in the day

• Daily long legged doji formed, suggests EUR/USD bears are losing strength
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6885 after AUD/USD hit 0.6867 & neared the 200-DMA overnight

• Pair rallied in early NY with help from gold, silver, copper & equity gains

• Rally intensified as USD sold-off at the fix & USD/CNH fell toward 6.7870

• AUD/JPY's rally toward 112.60 contributed to AUD/USD's rally to 0.6930

• AUD/USD slid a bit, neared 0.6915 late, the pair traded up +0.39% in NY's afternoon

• Daily RSI diverged on today's low, bullish engulfing candle formed; may worry bears
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

HSBC Research discusses Gold outlook and sees a scope for near-term support.

"Gold slid on rate hike expectations, despite a lower USD; focus on labor data; looks weaker near term but near support," GS notes.

"The very near-term outlook may be bearish for gold and a break of USD4,000/oz looks likely. This could set off further sell- stops and additional weakness. What could support prices?

The steep decline may trigger some bargain hunting or fresh physical buying. Central banks, which have largely been absent from the market, may resurface, which could stem losses. But for the very near term, the path of least resistance may be lower," GS adds.

EUR/USD came under pressure after failing to hold above its 10-day moving average, with the latest European inflation data contributing to bearish sentiment. June inflation readings across Germany, France, Ireland, and Italy all came in below expectations, largely driven by lower energy prices, raising the possibility that disinflation may be taking hold in the euro zone. The softer inflation figures have prompted investors to reassess the likelihood of further ECB rate hikes this year. This shift in expectations was reflected in markets, with German 2-year yields falling toward key support at 2.50% and Euribor futures climbing to 2.5-month highs, signaling that traders now anticipate a less hawkish ECB stance. These expectations were further reinforced by comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde last week, which were also interpreted as less hawkish.

Meanwhile, the dollar's yield advantage over the euro widened as U.S.-German 2-year yield spreads expanded following the data, adding further downward pressure on EUR/USD. Should these spreads continue to widen, bearish pressure on the pair could intensify.

Looking ahead, U.S. employment data represents a key risk event for EUR/USD bulls. Strong job growth figures would likely boost the dollar and U.S. yields by reinforcing expectations of a hawkish Fed, widening yield spreads further in the dollar's favor and potentially driving EUR/USD lower.
deus


euribor


eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research discusses the impact of equity-related FX hedging on G10 currencies.

"We have previously argued that equity-related FX hedging may have contributed to yen weakness since 2025. We expand the analysis to cover major currencies. Given the lack of comprehensive statistics on currency hedging and the multiple assumptions required, the results should be interpreted with caution. Nevertheless, it is worth putting this hypothesis on the table.

The impact of FX hedging appears to have been particularly pronounced as a downside pressure on the yen. By contrast, for other G10 currencies (ex-USD), hedging has generally acted as a supportive factor and may have supported cross-yen pairs. In particular, SEK, CHF, CAD, and AUD may have benefited from hedging flows during the latest AI-driven equity rally since 2Q25.," BofA notes.

"Risk-reward favors being long yen given the combination of near-term caution of our US and Japanese equity strategy teams and the risk of yen-buying intervention. We maintain at least a short-term cautious or bearish stance on CAD and CHF and we think the risk is skewed to the downside for CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY. We have recommended selling CHF/JPY," BofA adds.

• USD/CHF has traded a 19 pip EBS range since the European open; 0.8082-0.8101

• 0.8082 is 15 pips above the EBS low since last week's 10-month peak of 0.8139

• Switzerland seeks trade deal with U.S. after initial November accord

• U.S. JOLTS data, consumer confidence index due at 1400 GMT; 7.3M, 94.8 f/c

• Swiss June CPI data due on Thursday; 0.5% YY expected (Reuters poll)

USDCHF


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Danske Research previews the US jobs report for June (due on Thursday).

"We forecast nonfarm payrolls (released already on Thursday ahead of 4 July) at +100,000, slightly below consensus of 110,000, and unemployment rate steady at 4.3%," Danske notes.

"We still see further strategic upside potential for both US rates and broad USD FX but also see some room for a near-term reversal especially if this week’s labour market data comes out cooler than consensus predicts.

We forecast 2x25bp rate hikes from the Fed (slightly more than markets price in, currently 39bp) but only in December and March (markets have fully priced in the first hike by October)," Danske adds.

• Broad-based USD buying in Asia drove AUD/USD down to a fresh 2-month low

• The pair neared the 200-DMA, it traded 0.6867, buyers then emerged

• USD dropped & USD/CNH fell to 6.7865, gold & silver

rallied

• AUD/USD hit 0.6887 in early NY action, the pair traded up +0.01%

• Daily techs warn shorts; RSI diverged on the low & a long legge daily doji formed

• Monthly techs remain bearish though so rallies may be limited

• US May JOLTS & June consumer confidence are data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Gold's price action through June tells a cautious story. A pattern of lower highs — from around $4,540 on June 1, to $4,370 mid-month, to roughly $4,090 on Friday — points to steady selling pressure, with each recovery falling shorter than the last. Whether that reflects sellers running out of steam or consistent supply overwhelming demand remains unclear, but the compression itself is the concern.

The $4,000 an ounce level is proving pivotal. Prices dipped briefly to $3,944 overnight before snapping back, so there could be a buyer below, but it might just be that thin liquidity is simply triggering stop-hunting behaviour.

On the downside, Deutsche Bank's metals desk highlights the next big level being $3,950.00 — coinciding with the approximate position of the July GLD 360 put strike. They cite little support below that level, since gold has held above $4,000 all year — suggesting any breach could leave the market exposed to a sharper leg lower as dealer delta hedging amplifies selling pressure.

Macro headwinds are compounding the technical pressure. ETF outflows continue, with heavy liquidation last week extending into this week. OCBC has revised its gold and silver forecasts lower, citing higher real yields, a firmer USD and sluggish ETF flows as near-term obstacles, even as central bank buying and hedging demand provide a structural floor. Fed rate path uncertainty adds another layer — until clarity emerges on the number of hikes this year, central bank buying can cushion falls but lacks the firepower to drive a sustained rally.

Silver faces similar constraints, with OCBC noting it likely needs gold to stabilise, real yields to ease, or ETF flows to recover before any durable recovery takes hold.

The structural case for gold remains intact for many, but the near-term setup is challenging — ETF flows, and price action, are all pointing in the same direction right now.
XAU=EBS


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

June 30 (Reuters) - USD/JPY could see much bigger gains in the coming sessions due to a lack of action from Japanese authorities. The yen slumped to levels not seen since 1986 on Tuesday, leaving traders on alert for any potential intervention from Japan to shore up the persistently weak currency. Japan reiterated on Tuesday that authorities stood ready to respond to currency moves, keeping the rhetoric unchanged despite the yen's slide to a four-decade low.

Elevated USD/JPY has seen a 161.91-162.41 range, on Tuesday, according to EBS data. Spot could well climb further to test the 163.00 psychological level, a clean and sustained break above which in turn would put Japanese authorities under further pressure to step in. However, FX traders should be aware that the relationship between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY is broken, meaning gains in the cross will likely be limited as it is currently carrying significant euro downside risks. The 30-day log correlation reading between the two currency pairs is very close to zero.
Correlation Chart


Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Short-dated USD/JPY option demand rises after USD/JPY breaks 162.00 barriers for a new 40-year high

• Options expiring Friday/early next week most sought — capturing both NFP volatility and possible MoF intervention

• A strong NFP extending USD/JPY gains raises intervention risk — thin holiday liquidity amplifies the threat

• Friday's US holiday thins liquidity sharply — giving MoF the ideal window to weaken USD/JPY with maximum impact

• Traded options include many downside strikes, while risk reversals maintain a high JPY call over put vol premium

• Market clearly wary of intervention risk and Thursday/Friday NFP and holiday window seen as an ideal opportunity
1-week and 1-month expiry USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD holds sub-0.69 following Asian session fall to 0.6867 (3-month low)

• 0.69 is a former support point (0.6895-0.6900 option expiries today)

• 0.6860 (April 2 low) and 0.6834 (March 30-31 low) are support levels

• Minutes from June 15-16 RBA meeting were published at 0130 GMT

• RBA held its cash rate unchanged on June 16, after three consecutive hikes

• U.S. JOLTS data, consumer confidence index due at 1400 GMT; 7.3M, 94.6 f/c

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Capricorn Metals rise as much as 5.7% to A$13.28, their highest since June 23

• Gold explorer says its unit received Federal Environmental approval for the expansion and operation of the Mount Gibson Gold Project in Western Australia

• The Federal approval allows Capricorn to finalise the primary Western Australian approvals required for the Mount Gibson Project under the Environmental Protection Act 1986 (WA)

• CMM down 11.3% YTD
(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Tuesday June 30

• EUR/USD: 1.1310-20 (1.7BLN), 1.1345-50 (1.1BLN), 1.1400-05 (5BLN), 1.1420 (1.6BLN), 1.1445-50 (1.2BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8075 (302M), 0.8160 (919M)

• EUR/GBP: 0.8660 (178M), 0.8685 (279M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3200 (223M), 1.3245-50 (408M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6895-0.6900 (710M)]

• USD/CAD: 1.4200-05 (785M)

• USD/JPY: 161.00 (590M), 161.25 (450M), 161.50-55 (350M), 162.50 (2.25BLN)

• Mondays daily FX options wrap - Fragile calm as geopolitics and NFP collide (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD slips 0.3% Tue as reality of RBA meeting minutes settles

• RBA noted risks of "potentially material weakening" in housing markets

• Traders beginning to conclude RBA tightening cycle may have run its course

• AUD drifting toward 0.6834 support, break below will reinvigorate downswing

• Iran says will not be meeting any U.S. officials in Qatar on Tue

• U.S. Supreme Court blocks Trump from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook

• U.S. Jun non-farm payrolls due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +110k

• Range Asia 0.68665-89 support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)