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Nov 04 - 11:00 PM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-Focus On UK Election, But The USD May Drive Sterling
First appeared on eFXplus on Nov 04 - 09:10 PM

The UK election is getting into its stride as the two major parties pursue swing voters.
Politicians are offering fresh public spending on health, education and infrastructure in an echo of the excess of the 1970s nL8N27K1I0.
Colourful language and biting comments flow, with Labour leader Corbyn calling PM Johnson's Brexit plans "Thatcherism on steroids' nL8N27K5PA. An ICM poll Monday showed the Conservatives with a 7-point lead nL8N27K5GH, while the Click here , which includes the ICM poll, has the Conservatives at +11.
Early days in the UK election race,as sterling nears the end of three weeks in a tight 1.2790-1.3012 range.
UK data, which has unsurprisingly been soft in this uncertain climate, is having little impact.
Positioning is no longer an issue, as GBP shorts have been significantly reduced on the IMM nL2N27K0MJ, which was corroborated by Nomura's FX Positioning report.
A big change in the election polls could spark a GBP/USD range break, on the downside if the left-wing Labour opposition gain traction.
It's more likely a range break will be triggered by a USD move.
The pivotal cable levels are 1.2700, 38.2% of the October bounce, and 1.3045, 76.4% of the 2019 decline.
A close outside would be directional.


gbp nov 5 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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