June 6 (Reuters) - USD/CHF's June seasonal analysis suggests an underlying fragility that could send this currency pair lower, at least in the near-term.

A study of USD/CHF's performance for each June since 2000 shows it has dropped in 19 of the last 25 years, or 76% of the time. While seasonality should not be considered in isolation, it is a useful tool when corroborated by other factors.

USD/CHF has entered a period of consolidation in recent sessions after the downward spiral from May's 0.8475 peak. In May, spot faltered ahead of the 0.8488 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the 0.9210 to 0.8042 2025 (EBS) drop. Fourteen-day momentum remains negative, highlighting the underlying bearish market structure.

There are signs fragility in the U.S. economy persists, also trade negotiations between Washington and its trading partners have made little progress despite a looming deadline. If risk aversion intensifies, that would likely see further funds to flow into the safe-haven franc and put downward pressure on USD/CHF.

The Swiss National Bank said on Friday it would intervene in foreign currency markets where necessary to keep inflation on track after the United States added Switzerland to a list of countries being monitored for unfair currency and trade practices. Related comment.

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Seasonality Chart:

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)