Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs advocates for a long gold position through 2025, citing its role as a hedge against inflation, geopolitical risks, and potential US policy uncertainties. Structural central bank demand and cyclical factors, including Fed rate cuts, support their $3,000/oz price forecast by December 2025.

Key Points:

1. Diversification Amid Policy Uncertainty:

   • The wide range of potential US policy shifts in 2025, including tariff escalation and debt concerns, enhances gold’s appeal as a diversifying asset.
   • Gold acts as a hedge in scenarios involving inflation, geopolitical disruptions, and fiscal instability.

2. Entry Opportunity:

   • Recent consolidation in gold prices provides a favorable entry point for high-conviction long positions.

3. Structural and Cyclical Drivers:

   • Central bank demand offers structural support for gold prices.
   • Expected Fed rate cuts add cyclical tailwinds, bolstering the gold outlook.

4. $3,000/oz Target:

   • Goldman maintains a December 2025 price target of $3,000/oz, reflecting their bullish long-term view on gold.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs highlights gold as a critical component of a diversified portfolio amid heightened US policy uncertainty and global risks. With structural and cyclical drivers aligned, they recommend a long position targeting $3,000/oz by late 2025.