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Jan 06 - 12:55 PM

Goldman Sachs: Here is Why We Expect a Below-Consensus Print for December NFP

By eFXdata  —  Jan 06 - 11:00 AM

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a weaker-than-expected payroll increase of 125k in December, attributing the shortfall to Big Data trends and unfavorable calendar effects.

Key Points:

  • Payroll Growth:

    • Anticipates 125k increase, below the consensus of 160k.
    • Factors include:
      • Big Data indicators signaling slower job growth.
      • Calendar configuration potentially dragging payrolls by 50k.
  • Unemployment Rate:

    • Forecasted to rise to 4.3% (vs. 4.2% consensus), influenced by:
      • Rebound in the participation rate.
      • Tougher job-finding environment.
    • Seasonal factor revisions might slightly lower Q4 unemployment rates.
  • Wage Growth:

    • Average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.3% m-o-m, leaving y-o-y growth steady at 4.0%.
    • Positive calendar effects offset by softer wage pressures.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs anticipates slower labor market momentum in December, but projects stabilization and slight re-tightening through 2025 as immigrant labor supply growth moderates.

Source:
Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary

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