By eFXdata — Jan 06 - 11:00 AM
Synopsis:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a weaker-than-expected payroll increase of 125k in December, attributing the shortfall to Big Data trends and unfavorable calendar effects.
Key Points:
-
Payroll Growth:
- Anticipates 125k increase, below the consensus of 160k.
- Factors include:
- Big Data indicators signaling slower job growth.
- Calendar configuration potentially dragging payrolls by 50k.
-
Unemployment Rate:
- Forecasted to rise to 4.3% (vs. 4.2% consensus), influenced by:
- Rebound in the participation rate.
- Tougher job-finding environment.
- Seasonal factor revisions might slightly lower Q4 unemployment rates.
- Forecasted to rise to 4.3% (vs. 4.2% consensus), influenced by:
-
Wage Growth:
- Average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.3% m-o-m, leaving y-o-y growth steady at 4.0%.
- Positive calendar effects offset by softer wage pressures.
Conclusion:
Goldman Sachs anticipates slower labor market momentum in December, but projects stabilization and slight re-tightening through 2025 as immigrant labor supply growth moderates.
Source:
Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary