MUFG Research previews the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium which will take place from August 27–29.

"We expect attention will turn to the annual Jackson Hole symposium in the latter half of this week. Minutes of the July FOMC meeting released on 19 August showed that many participants believed a rate hike would be necessary if inflation failed to slow. However, expectations of a September rate hike have declined after a run of softer US data this month, including the employment report, CPI, and retail sales," MUFG notes.

"The focus will therefore be on what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh chooses to say when he speaks on 28 August. The Treasury's recent moves in the bond market have added another complication. Given Warsh's approach to communication so far, he may provide even fewer clues on near-term monetary policy than markets currently expect. It would also be unwise to assume that Treasury Secretary Bessent, who coordinated with the Japanese government on FX intervention, is acting independently of Warsh. Depending on Warsh's message, and how markets interpret it, his speech could once again heighten tensions in bond and FX markets," MUFG adds.