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Sep 01 - 12:55 PM

Goldman Sachs: We Expect August Payrolls to Reflect a Negative First Print Bias

By eFXdata  —  Sep 01 - 11:30 AM

Goldman Sachs Research previews the US August jobs report due on Friday.

"We expect a 40k increase in payrolls in August (vs. 55k consensus), in part reflecting a negative first print bias. Our forecast reflects a softer signal from alternative data. August payrolls have also shown a consistent negative bias—particularly in initial prints—over the last decade.

"We expect a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings, reflecting positive calendar effects. AHE growth fell to just 3.2% year-over-year last month, and our broader wage tracker has stabilized in the mid-3s. We expect the unemployment rate to stay at 4.1%, reflecting a stabilization in continuing claims," GS adds.

Source:
Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary

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