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Aug 20 - 09:55 AM

Goldman Sachs: UST Buybacks: Implications for FX Markets

By eFXdata  —  Aug 20 - 09:10 AM

Goldman Sachs discusses the implications of the UST buybacks program on FX markets.

"The Treasury announced they will increase long end buybacks by at least $2bn per operation for the remainder of the refunding quarterDuration may well rally given positioning in the steepener (and short-term reaction to the news). However, this should just act to cap the upside rather than cause material sustained move lower in yields," GS notes.

"We do however think this is more meaningful for the USD. They have shown that they are willing to be imaginative when it comes to supporting the backend, however this may come at the cost of a weaker USD. We can also see recent action to support the JPY point in that direction tool. A clear trade-off may start to emerge. Supporting bonds may come at the expense of letting the USD become the adjustment valve (prioritise yield control over FX control). This should be most bullish for Gold and then CHF in the fiat currency space. EUR$ is also interesting here given the break of the 200d MA (and corresponding break in DXY)," GS adds.

Source:
Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary
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