• EUR/USD flat ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole (1400GMT)

• Though spot has been in a holding pattern since rejecting 1.1700 on the topside

• Headwinds are growing for EUR, as European nat gas prices grind higher

• At current levels this would argue that EUR/USD belongs closer to 1.1400, not mid-1.16s

• That said, the recent lift in EUR/USD has been more about the pullback in the dollar than genuine EUR strength

• Given the backdrop, fading any fresh topside from above 1.17 than chasing weakness looks the cleaner expression

• Resistance sits at 1.1700-10, then 1.1790-1.1800. Support: 1.1640-50, then 1.1615-34
EURUSD vs nat gas


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))