June 24 (Reuters) - Intervention risk and stretched market positioning remain the main complications in mapping the current USD/JPY rally. Any official move to support the yen could trigger a sharp dollar reversal, limiting the usefulness of conventional upside targets.

That said, if USD/JPY is allowed to extend higher, Fibonacci projection analysis offers a framework for identifying potential resistance levels above 162.00. The calculation is based on three reference points: a significant swing low, a swing high and the subsequent corrective pullback. For USD/JPY, those levels are the 155.00 low from May 6, the 161.93 high from June 22 and a pullback low at 161.27-EBS pricing.

Using that structure, the first upside marker is 162.88, the 23.6% Fibonacci projection and an initial level to watch if USD/JPY clears the 162.00 area. Further targets come in at 163.88 and 164.70, corresponding to the 38.2% and 50% projection levels, respectively. A full measured move, based on a 100% projection of the May–June advance from the corrective low, would point to 168.14.
USD/JPY Daily Chart:


(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)