Morgan Stanley Research sees a scope for AUD/NZD to decline in the near-term on the back of this week's RBNZ policy meeting.
"AUD has been relatively resilient across risk-sensitive G10 FX as the USD started turning around in recent weeks. AUD/USD fell by a similar amount as NZD/USD even though long positioning was larger in the former post the China reopening. AUD positioning has thus moved back to only neutral territory, while in NZD shorts have built - keeping AUD/NZD spot at the highs and relative positioning elevated," MS notes.
"We think this resilience could be challenged in this week's RBNZ meeting. Market pricing has reduced to a high probability of a 50bp hike following the impact of cyclone Gabrielle in the country, but we think the scope for the RBNZ to downshift its OCR forecast is limited," MS adds.