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Feb 21 - 02:55 PM

AUD/NZD: Longs Could Reverse Due To The RBNZ - Morgan Stanley

By eFXdata  —  Feb 21 - 01:30 PM

Morgan Stanley Research sees a scope for AUD/NZD to decline in the near-term on the back of this week's RBNZ policy meeting. 

"AUD has been relatively resilient across risk-sensitive G10 FX as the USD started turning around in recent weeks. AUD/USD fell by a similar amount as NZD/USD even though long positioning was larger in the former post the China reopening. AUD positioning has thus moved back to only neutral territory, while in NZD shorts have built - keeping AUD/NZD spot at the highs and relative positioning elevated," MS notes.

"We think this resilience could be challenged in this week's RBNZ meeting. Market pricing has reduced to a high probability of a 50bp hike following the impact of cyclone Gabrielle in the country, but we think the scope for the RBNZ to downshift its OCR forecast is limited," MS adds.

Morgan Stanley Research/Market Commentary


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