• EUR/GBP stuck in a tight range, clustered around key MAs at 0.8689/0.8703

• Dips likely contained, conviction below 0.87 is low. Aggressive downside to be supported

• UK political risks will grow as the May local elections draws near

• Seasonals favour GBP, though mainly via cable - less relevant on the cross

• That said, once this tailwind rolls off, this likely clears way for EUR/GBP upside

• ECB officials signal no rush to hike in near-term - April priced at 25%

• But a measured approach could anchor EUR more sustainably over longer term

• On balance, risk/reward still leans higher for EUR/GBP
EURGBP daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))