ANZ Research previews the September RBA meeting and AUD/USD outlook around the meeting.

"Looking ahead, we now expect the RBA to deliver 25bp hikes in both September and November, taking the cash rate to 4.85%, the highest level since 2008. While a September hike is our base case, the vote may again be split, reflecting the Board's apparent preference to adjust policy alongside quarterly inflation updates and Statement on Monetary Policy meetings. Any dissent is likely to be about timing rather than the direction of policy.

For FX, the November signal matters more than the September decision itself. A hawkish hike (base case) that reinforces further upside to inflation risks and keeps November firmly in play would be the most supportive outcome for the AUD, likely pushing AUD/USD through 0.71 and towards 0.7140. A hike accompanied by neutral, data-dependent guidance will likely leave AUD/USD within its current trading range," ANZ notes.

"Conversely, a hold would likely weigh on the AUD initially, potentially dragging AUD/USD below 0.70. However, downside should prove limited if policymakers clearly signal that November remains a live meeting and further tightening remains the central policy path. In short, the AUD's reaction is likely to be driven less by September's decision and more by how the RBA frames the outlook for November," ANZ adds.