• GBP$ firm in NorAm trading, +0.13% at 1.3282; NorAm range 1.3292-1.3220

• Slight gain obscures cable drift to fresh 2-wk high near 1.33

• Pair caught a bid after Warsh's Sintra comments on easing inflation risks

• Rally stalled ahead of big-figure resistance at 1.33 awaiting Thursday NFP data

• LSEG's IRPR indicating 80% odds for Fed cut in Sept, +35bp by Dec FOMC meet

• BoE policy path a touch more dovish, futures indicate +17bp by Dec MPC meeting

• GBP$ res 1.3300 psychological lvl, 1.3325 daily high June 18, 1.3399 200-DMA

• Supt 1.3227 the 10-DMA, 1.3200 big-figure supt, 1.3155 lower 30-d Bolli

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1400 after 1.1420 traded overnight, the pair fell in early trading

• USD, US yield gains & wider spreads weighed on the pair

• 1.1362 traded but the pair rallied sharply on Fed Chair Warsh's comment on inflation

• USD and US yields moved downward & USD/CNH fell towards 6.7925

• Gold , silver & equities rallied after the comments

• EUR/USD hit 1.1412 then slid as USD firmed up while stocks eroded some gains

• The pair fell toward 1.1380 late in the session, EUR/USD was down -0.36%

• Falling daily, monthly RSIs & hold below the 10-DMA are bearish tech signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6900 after 0.6883 traded overnight, the pair fell in early trading

• 0.6885 traded on the back of USD buying & US yields

gains

• Buyers emerged however as USD, US yield softened & gold, silver, equities moved up

• Fed Chair Warsh's comment on inflation helped to buoy riskier assets

• AUD/USD hit 0.6921 then pulled back, neared 0.6900 late, traded down -0.27%

• Falling RSIs, pair's hold below the falling 10- & 21-DMAs are bearish tech signals

• US June payroll report tomorrow is now in focus for investors
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

JP Morgan summarizes its bias on EUR and CHF in the very near-term.

'The level to watch on a closing basis is below 1.1340 (38.2 retracement of move from 2025 lows to 2026 highs), on the topside now back above 1.15 and think we would see some squaring and thinking about the Summer," JPM notes.

"CHF strength once again over month end yesterday, and used the dip in USDCHF to get back into longs. Still think short CHF makes a lot of sense, especially in a portfolio where we're long higher yielders elsewhere," JPM adds.

Fear of missing out on a USD/JPY rally is increasingly pushing 170 into view as the yen languishes near multi-decade lows with little meaningful resistance from Japanese authorities. Pro-growth government policies, coupled with the BOJ’s cautious stance on policy normalization, continue to reinforce a self-sustaining bearish-yen dynamic. A Tankan index at an eight-year high underscores the central bank’s accommodative bias rather than altering it, reinforcing expectations that policy divergence will persist.

In this environment, options markets are pricing significant two-way risk over the near term. Traders are bracing for either imminent intervention or a swift move toward higher levels, with 165 and even 170 now discussed if authorities remain sidelined given positive spot/vol dynamics. That asymmetry itself highlights an increasingly crowded narrative.

Speculation is building that officials may be allowing conditions to ripen ahead of U.S. payrolls and a long U.S. weekend. The pre-weekend timing has precedent, though aligning intervention with major U.S. data is a dated concept. Nonetheless, several indicators point to heightened intervention risk. They include stretched short-yen positioning, elevated option convexity, close proximity to barrier structures that may be linked to Japanese accounts, and sustained trade above the 162 psychological threshold.

Countervailing factors include the orderly nature of USD/JPY’s rise alongside broad dollar strength, relatively measured official rhetoric, muted pushback from Japanese industry leaders, and the absence of imminent high-level policy meetings to support intervening. Ultimately, fear of a sharpy higher USD/JPY alone could still trigger action, though the broader bullish trend won't be challenged until it closes decisively below a rising 21-day moving average at 161.02 and ultimately 160. A turn down in the broader dollar or bullish yen seasonality for July may help that occur more naturally.
Yen convexity


Yen


(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Bank of America Global Research discusses GBP/USD technical outlook and flags the formation of a diamond top on the monthly chart.

"A diamond top pattern suggests the uptrend from the 2022 low is at risk of ending. In 3Q26, we favor following the breakout, which looks like it may be lower," BofA notes.

"A monthly and/or weekly close below 1.32 will start to break the support of the top pattern and the uptrend line from the 2022 lows. Below 1.3010 breaks the low of the pattern. 

Downside targets to consider include 1.2790-1.2775 and 1.2580. However, a strong rebound above 1.3509 / 1.3660 could suggest this is not a top and upside to the 200m SMA at about 1.40 may follow," BofA adds.

EUR/USD dropped to a three-session low on Wednesday, with risks of further declines growing amid a confluence of factors including euro zone inflation data, ECB commentary, and shifting yield differentials. Euro zone inflation for June came in at 2.8%, well below the 3.0% estimate and May's 3.2% reading, signaling that disinflation may be gaining traction. This softer inflation print adds to a recent string of lower-than-expected pricing data, reinforcing the notion that the ECB may be nearing the end of its rate hiking cycle. Several ECB officials echoed this sentiment. ECB's Demarco cautioned against rushing further rate hikes, while policymaker Joachim Nagel noted that second-round effects from Germany's energy price surge remain minimal. ECB President Christine Lagarde further tempered rate hike expectations by stating that risks to euro zone inflation and economic growth are now more broadly balanced compared to just a few weeks ago.

Markets responded swiftly, with German 2-year yields

falling and December Euribor futures rallying as investors scaled back ECB rate hike bets. U.S.-German 2-year yield spreads broke below key support near -163bps, hitting levels not seen since September 2025.

Looking ahead, investors will closely watch U.S. employment and inflation data due Thursday. Strong jobs figures and sticky inflation could bolster the dollar and lift U.S. interest rates, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike and pushing EUR/USD lower.
deus


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Goldman Sachs Research previews the US June jobs report due on Thursday.

"We expect a 130k increase in payrolls in June (vs. 115k consensus), boosted by two special factors. We estimate that the World Cup boosted payroll growth by 40k.  A positive June initial print bias centered on state and local government educational services could provide a large boost too (the category has printed 45k higher in the first release than in the third on average over the last 3 years)," GS notes.

"We expect an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.3%, reflecting the stabilization in continuing claims.  Our slack tracker—a composite of ten indicators of labor market strength—is higher at 4.8%. We forecast a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings, reflecting negative calendar effects.  Our wage growth tracker has fallen to 3.3% year-over-year, below the 4% rate compatible with 2% inflation," GS adds.

• EUR/USD fell back below the 10-DMA overnight, traded 1.1420-1.1386

• NY opened near 1.1400, the pair traded down -0.23% in early action

• Broad-based USD buying, rally in US yields weighed on EUR/USD

• Drops in gold, silver, equities & rally in USD/CNH contributed weight on EUR/USD

• EUR/USD is consolidating gains from the rally off the June 24 low, is a bull signal

• Hold below 10- & 21-DMAs, falling RSIs are concerns for EUR/UDS bulls however

• US June ADP & ISM manufacturing PMI are data risks in NY's morning

• Investors to focus Fed Chair Warsh's talk in Sintra Portugal at 9:00 EDT
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD traded 0.6921-0.6883 overnight, NY opened near 0.6895, down -0.32%

• Broad based USD buying & rally in US yields weighed on the pair

• USD/CNH rally to 6.8025, drops in gold, silver, copper & equities added weight

• AUD/USD remained with Tuesday's daily range & above the 200-DMA however

• Break below those supports could lead to a deep fall for AUD/USD

• US June ADP and ISM manufacturing PMI are data risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/GBP extends south to 0.8593 after softer than expected EZ inflation data

• Up 2.8% YY in June vs 3.0% f/c. 0.8593 is the lowest level since 2 July 2025

• 0.8600 was EUR/GBP low before the euro zone inflation data

• Cooler print is blow for hawks advocating another ECB rate hike on July 23

• BoE is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75% on July 30

EURGBP


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

FX implied volatility is a market-derived gauge of expected price movement — and with the shortest-dated expiries now rolling over to capture Thursday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data, the overnight tenor has become the clearest indicator of how dealers are pricing that risk.

Adding to the appeal of overnight options, holders also get exposure to the heavyweight central bank speaker lineup at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal — including U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. None are expected to materially move FX markets, but with Warsh still a relatively unknown quantity, you never quite know. For those already holding overnight options for NFP, the Sintra speakers are a bonus free option within the same expiry window.

Overnight FX options expire the next business day at 10 a.m. New York / 3 p.m. London, fully capturing the payrolls, which are being released a day early due to Friday's U.S. Independence Day holiday.

Implied volatility has risen sharply across the board, more so than last month, suggesting dealers are not just hedging the event but respecting the broader market backdrop. USD/JPY saw the most dramatic move. The pair has extended to fresh 40-year highs above 162.00, keeping intervention risk firmly in focus. Overnight implied vol has surged from 10.75 to 16.0, translating to a straddle break-even of 108 JPY pips, up from 73 pips — reflecting both NFP risk and heightened sensitivity around intervention levels.

EUR/USD overnight vol rose from 7.75 to 10.75, lifting the straddle break-even from 37 to 51 USD pips — suggesting the market sees a meaningful data surprise as a real possibility.

AUD/USD overnight vol climbed from 11.0 to 13.5, pushing the break-even from 31 to 39 USD pips — a more measured move, consistent with AUD's lower sensitivity to U.S. payrolls relative to the other pairs. In summary, overnight vol has risen materially across all three pairs, with USD/JPY the standout given spot at 40-year highs and intervention risk simmering in the background. A significant NFP surprise could test both break-even levels and MoF patience simultaneously — and with the Sintra speakers thrown in for free, overnight options look well priced for the risk on offer.
Overnight expiry FXO implied volatility


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY extends its 40-year high to 162.84 Wednesday, 163.00 option barriers are the next major resistance

• FX option implied volatility extends gains - 1-month to 8.2 from 6.8 on Monday when spot was still below 162.00

• 1-month risk reversals retain a strong vol premium for JPY calls over puts despite higher spot - flags intervention risk

• Butterfly spread options maintain multi-year highs - would benefit from a bigger FX move in either direction

• There's also been outright demand for JPY puts with strikes at 164-165 - suggesting traders not ruling out more FX gains

• Thursday's NFP a key catalyst — a strong beat could fuel more USD/JPY gains and heighten intervention risk

• Thin liquidity amid Friday's US holiday could amplify intervention impact — ideal window for MoF to act
1-week and 1-month expiry USD/JPY FXO implied volatility


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

July 1 (Reuters) - EUR/GBP has been locked in a technically significant battle since peaking at 0.8729 on May 15. According to LSEG data, the pair has repeatedly failed to reclaim the 100-day simple moving average, currently sitting at 0.8671 — a level that has emerged as the defining line of resistance in recent weeks.

The pattern of failed breakouts is a textbook bearish signal. Each intraday push above the 100-day MA has been met with renewed selling pressure, with the market closing back beneath it — what technicians refer to as a false break or bull trap. A brief close above the average on June 18 offered a fleeting glimmer of recovery, but it failed to attract follow-through buying and the pair quickly retreated. The repeated rejection of EUR/GBP advances signals that the medium-term trend remains firmly in sterling's favour.

The fundamental backdrop justifies the technical weakness. The Bank of England's MPC left rates unchanged at 3.75% on June 18, with two members actually voting for a 25 basis point hike — a notably hawkish split that keeps rate cut expectations firmly in check. UK CPI remains above the MPC's 2% target, and the Bank expects inflation to rise further in the second half of 2026.

By contrast, the ECB's cumulative 200 basis points of easing since June 2024 leaves it in a structurally more dovish position. Even after a 25 basis point hike at its June 11 meeting — prompted by Middle East-driven inflationary pressures — the policy differential continues to favour sterling-denominated assets on a carry basis.

Weak eurozone growth, persistently high energy costs, and geopolitical uncertainty add further headwinds for the euro.

As long as EUR/GBP remains capped below the 100-day MA, the path of least resistance points toward the June 2025 low of 0.8408. For bulls to regain control, a decisive, high-volume close above the moving average — followed by a successful retest as support — would be required before a recovery toward 0.8729 becomes credible.
EUR/GBP daily chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/SGD retreats to 1.2958 from Wed high 1.2966; STI +0.1%

• Might still end up inside Bollinger uptrend channel at 1.2952

• Tracking USD/JPY movements closely as intervention fears arise

• Ahead of US holiday Friday, some USD longs may trim positions

• Chance of Japan FX officials acting, capitalizing on thin liquidity again

• Singapore private home prices rose again, +0.5% q/q
SGD


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• JPY remain on the back foot, USD/JPY to fresh 40-year high of 162.84 EBS

• Early low 162.54 and suggests downside very limited on strong demand

• Japanese importers, retail/NISA/funds, foreign investor hedges on stock buys

• Barring Japan FX intervention, more upside maybe inevitable

• Some suggest MOF could strike after US jobs report release Thursday

• Specs already eyeing 163.00 break, some talk of option barriers at strike

• Spot up with 162.67 hourly Ichimoku tenkan, kijun 162.41 below

• Hourly cloud 161.97-162.11, importer bids @162.00 on KO-ed option barriers

• Also supportive $1 bln vanilla option expiries today between 161.90-162.10

• EUR/JPY down some from 185.84 high yesterday, Asia 185.48-71 EBS

• Consolidating above 185.26 hourly kijun, 184.89-99 daily Ichimoku cloud

• Some option expiries today at 184.60 and 184.75, between 185.60-70

• CHF/JPY 200.80-201.27 after rally to 201.53 overnight

• Back to 201.03-73 daily Ichimoku cloud, holding above 200.79 hourly kijun

• GBP/JPY 215.18-68 after rally to 215.76 o/n, towards 216.59 peak Apr 30

• AUD/JPY 111.92-112.50 post-rally to 112.61 o/n, in 111.73-113.25 daily cloud

• Pull-back from high but support from 112.06 200-HMA, at 111.93 hourly kijun

• NZD/JPY 92.06-39 post-rally to 92.47 o/n, still sub-92.47-93.07 daily cloud

• BOJ Tankan taken in stride, Japan Inc low-balling USD, EUR assumptions

• Nikkei higher as AI shares bought, JGB yields up on weak yen, fiscal worries

• Related comment , also

• On BOJ Tankan/BOJ , , ,
USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Australian gold stocks fall as much as 1.5%, their lowest since June 12

• The benchmark index S&P/ASX 200 index down 0.5%

• Bullion prices extended losses as fading prospects of a permanent U.S.-Iran peace deal boosted expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes [GOL/]

• Gold miners Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources slid 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively

• AXGD down 21% YTD

(Reporting by Keshav Singh Chundawat in Bengaluru)

• USD/SGD rallies to 1.2951, aiming to reinstate bullish chart bias

• Wed close above current level will engage Bollinger uptrend channel

• Gains seen across most USD/AXJ as rising USD/JPY inspires bulls

• Underpinning the move, UST yields rose Tues; 2y 4.164%, 10y 4.457%

• US Fed fund futures now imply 80% chance of Sept hike

• But risk-on seen in early Asia stocks may limit USD gains; STI +0.3%
SGD


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY as high as 162.67 EBS overnight, Asia so far 162.54-66, bid

• Seems Japan intervention threats increasingly falling on deaf ears

• No doubt lack of action to prompt fresh moves towards 163.00 test

• That said, intervention threat real, some say could come after US jobs data

• MOF maybe considering impact of jobs data on rates, FX, other markets

• Barring such action, USD/JPY looks to remain bid, demand strong

• Japanese importer demand stronger now with 162.00 option barriers KO-ed

• Large option expiries too below between 161.90-162.10 today, total $1 bln

• Retail including NISA demand, foreign investor hedging of stock buys too

• JGB-US Treasury 2-year rate differentials @273 bps, off recent wides

• Rate differential in 10s narrower still, down to 167 bps overnight

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on US economy

• US markets , , ,

• On Japan intervention , BOJ
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD +0.7% wtd as upswing extends into third-consecutive day

• RBNZ Jul 8 monetary policy meeting outcome the dominant factor short term

• Futures pricing implies 74.2% probability of 25 bps hike, dialogue critical

• NZD likely to firm further, break below 0.5627 would reset narrative

• Uncertainty lingers as Iran reiterates will not meet U.S. officials in Qatar

• U.S. Jun non-farm payrolls due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +110k

• Range NZ 0.5674-805, support 0.5627 5580, resistance 0.5991 0.6012 0.6093
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.7% from Tue's low, recovers from near 0.6864 200-DMA

• 0.6834 remains target zone, break below will expediate downswing

• Cotality data reveals AU housing prices entering steep decline

• RBA tightening cycle may have run its course, hawkish rhetoric aside

• Iran reiterates will not be meeting U.S. officials in Doha

• U.S. Jun non-farm payrolls due Thur, Reuters poll consensus +110k

• Overnight range 0.68756-0.6930 support 0.6834 0.6660, resistance 0.7089
AUD Daily 200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

JP Morgan highlights its tactical bias for the rest of the week.

"Timing and tactics are now the name of the game; value date rolling into next month is a small tick as disclosure can be pushed out, upcoming illiquidity for the US holiday Friday is a tick to cause maximum discomfort and bang for their buck, NFP is a risk here but could also work in tandem if we see any weakness," JPM notes.

"One should have some short cross yen in the book for the rest of the week (CHFJPY  favourite), look for the 5 big fig fade if just the MOF, in the unlikely case they manage to get Scott on board via the fixed income angle (contagion fears/reserve liquidation) then the scope to stay longer JPY clearly broadens," JPM adds.

(Corrects typo in 1st bullet)

• GBP$ hovers near flat in NY afternoon at 1.3261; NorAm range 1.3277-1.3213

• Cable a tad bid after US JOLTS came in higher off April revision lower

• Despite early NY dip, GBP$ hovers near recent highs in 1.3270s; GBPJPY bid aids GBP rise

• Risk rebound continues Nasdaq +1.6%, amid reduced UK political, fiscal tension

• GBP$ res 1.3277 Tuesday high, 1.3322 daily base line, 1.3402 the 200-DMA

• Supt 1.3233 daily conversion line, 1.3213 Tuesday low, 1.3159 lower 30-d Bolli

Sterling Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1400 and fell below 1.1390 early but buyers then emerged

• Pair broke 1.1405 despite firmer US yields , wider spreads

• Rally intensified as the USD was sold during the fix & EUR/JPY rallied to 185.84

• Gains in gold, silver, equities & the drop in USD/CNH helped fuel EUR/USD's lift

• The pair hit 1.1437 then neared 1.1425 late, the pair was near flat late in the day

• Daily long legged doji formed, suggests EUR/USD bears are losing strength
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)