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Sep 12 - 06:55 PM

Barclays Predicts Higher U.S. CPI Growth in August Driven by Energy Prices

By eFXdata  —  Sep 12 - 03:00 PM

Barclays forecasts a rise in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, driven largely by an increase in energy prices. The bank estimates a 0.6% month-over-month (m/m) seasonally adjusted (sa) increase, elevating the annual rate to 3.7% year-over-year (y/y).

Key Points:

  • Energy Prices: Higher energy costs are anticipated to be a significant factor in the uptick in headline CPI.

  • Core Inflation: Barclays sees core inflation pressures rising modestly to 0.22% m/m, influenced by a surge in core services inflation partly offset by stronger goods deflation.

  • Annual Rate: The forecast implies a rise in the annual inflation rate to 3.7%.

Trading Recommendations:

  • Inflation-Linked Assets: Traders might consider positions in assets that are positively correlated with inflation, given the expected uptick in the CPI.

  • Dollar Sensitivity: An increase in the CPI may lead to speculation on the Federal Reserve's policy, affecting USD trading.


For Traders:
  • Fed Watch: Higher CPI could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy, affecting market sentiment and trading strategies.

  • Portfolio Rebalancing: A surge in inflation may necessitate a rebalance of portfolios to include more inflation-resistant assets.

For Policymakers:
  • Policy Decisions: A higher CPI reading may require a reassessment of current monetary policies, particularly with regard to interest rates and asset purchases.


Barclays expects the U.S. CPI for August to increase, largely influenced by rising energy prices. The bank forecasts a 0.6% m/m sa rise, bringing the annual rate to 3.7% y/y. This expected rise in inflation has implications for trading strategies and may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Barclays Research/Market Commentary


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