AUD/USD remains in danger of breaking below key support as the market awaits a wave of closely watched data releases this week and next. March retail sales and Q1 retail trade, both forecast to moderate from prior results, kick off the data series tonight and March housing finance follows on May 11.
Wage price index for Q1 and employment for April are due May 16 and 17 respectively, and both could have a significant impact on AUD/USD. Its slide from 2018's peak hit a new low last week after piercing the key 50 percent Fib retracement of the 2016-18 rally. Though it never closed below that level, the bounce back above it has been unimpressive.
If upcoming data turns out unexpectedly weak, AUD/USD is likely to end its recent consolidation and break back below that 50 percent Fib as market expectations for RBA rate hikes suffer.
With Fed tightening seemingly on autopilot, any expectations of the RBA remaining on hold longer than previously thought will weigh down AUD/USD.
A break below the Fib targets the May 2017 low at 0.7329 and major support at 0.7110/60.
chart: Click here