The success of a USD/JPY selling strategy on days of U.S. NFP releases may provide a way of calculating the possible extent of the current decline, which has been exacerbated by Japanese PM Abe's comments renewing speculation that BoJ's Kuroda may be replaced by a less dovish governor .
A small tweak to that strategy--a pause on the day of the data but sell shortly after-- has enhanced the success of this trade .
As the current USD/JPY drop is the extension of a move that again began following NFPs, it may be possible to gauge the size of the fall from prior declines post-NFPs.
Drops after NFP data November through January were between 3 and 5 yen, but the bigger drops did follow weaker than expected data.
February's NFP beat estimates, which suggests the current USD/JPY fall may have overshot.
At the extreme, the data suggests a base around 105.50.
That is close to the 200-MMA at 105.73 which has played a pivotal long-term role .
USDJPY monthly: Click here