Synopsis:

Barclays expects the RBA to adopt a hawkish tone at its November meeting, reinforcing the message that rate cuts are unlikely in 2024. With the Australian economy operating above potential and core inflation still above target, the RBA is expected to signal a steady path for now, while providing updated economic forecasts.

Key Points:

• Hawkish Stance Maintained: Barclays anticipates the RBA will convey that rate cuts are not expected until at least 2025.
• Above-Potential Economy: The Australian economy remains above potential, justifying a cautious approach to easing.
• Core Inflation Concerns: Core inflation remains outside the RBA’s target range, reinforcing the need for a hawkish tone.
• Statement on Monetary Policy: The meeting will be accompanied by an updated Statement on Monetary Policy, offering revised economic forecasts.

Conclusion:

Barclays projects a steady policy stance from the RBA, with a focus on maintaining a hawkish message amid above-potential economic conditions and persistent inflation. The updated economic forecasts will likely reinforce expectations that rate cuts are off the table for the remainder of 2024.