Huge FX option strike expiries and their related cash hedging flows have been dominating EUR/USD price action this week, so traders should beware of more to come over the coming week.
EUR/USD is close to 1.4-billion euros at 1.0800-10 for Friday's 10-am New York cut expiry, with 1.9 billion just above at 1.0825.
If the U.S.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell fails to budge EUR/USD with his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium just after, then traders should beware the cash hedging effect from a further 2-billion euros expiring between 1.0795 and 1.0805 on Monday.
Should EUR/USD rise, then beware 500-million euros at 1.0825 on Monday, 655-million at 1.0850 and 1.5-billion 1.0900.
Tuesday's biggest strike is at 1.0800 on 1.8-billion euros.
Wednesday has 1.1-billion euros at 1.0775-80, 850-million at 1.0800-05, 900-million at 1.0875 and 1.2-billion euros at 1.0900.
Not much on Thursday but Friday expiry has attracted plenty of option demand due to its NFP inclusion.
There are 2.3-billion euros between 1.0725-35 and 1.9-billion between 1.0740-50.
There are 800-million euros at 1.0800, 1.2-billion between 1.0820-30, 1.4-billion at 1.0885 and 1.1-billion at 1.0900.
EUR/USD FX option implied volatility is primed for more USD gains but looks over-valued and primed to fall if they aren't realised.
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