EUR/USD fell in the wake of last week's killing of a leading Iranian commander in a U.S. air strike in Iraq nL8N2973J9, as a surprised market sold EUR/JPY.
EUR/USD recovered all the lost ground Monday, as geopolitics typically faded as the main force driving market moves.
Barring the unlikely event of a full-scale Middle East conflict, the market will shift focus to economic fundamentals and central bank expectations.
The main event this week will be Friday's US non-farm payrolls report.
The data takes on more importance after the extremely weak U.S. ISM manufacturing release last Friday nN9N27Z024, as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report will heighten concerns that the Fed is overly optimistic in its upbeat assumptions for the U.S. economy in 2020. A dovish shift in Fed expectations could see EUR/USD resume the short-term uptrendthat dominated price action for most of December.
The Dec 31 and five-month high at 1.1240 lines up with a downtrend line drawn from Feb 16, 2018 and a clear break above 1.1250 would be bullish.
A break and close below the 200-day MA (around 1.1140) would suggest a short-term top is in place at 1.1240 and more downside likely.