Synopsis:
Morgan Stanley outlines its forecasts for upcoming US economic reports, including retail sales, initial jobless claims, and industrial production. The firm expects modest growth in retail sales, a slight increase in jobless claims, and a decline in industrial production due to disruptions in the aerospace sector.
Key Points:
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US Retail Sales:
- Forecast: Headline retail sales are expected to rise by 0.1% month-over-month in September, with control group sales also increasing by 0.1%.
- Factors: The anticipated growth is attributed to higher auto sales, while gasoline sales are projected to decline.
- Implication: These figures are consistent with an estimated 3% real consumption growth for the third quarter.
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US Jobless Claims:
- Forecast: A small increase in initial claims is expected, reaching 265,000, while continuing claims are projected to remain steady at 1.865 million following recent increases.
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US Industrial Production:
- Forecast: A decline of 0.4% month-over-month is anticipated in industrial and manufacturing production for September.
- Key Reason: This decrease is largely attributed to the Boeing strike, impacting overall production figures.
Conclusion:
Morgan Stanley's forecasts indicate a mixed economic outlook for the US. While retail sales are expected to show modest growth, jobless claims are anticipated to rise slightly, and industrial production is likely to face challenges due to specific sector disruptions. These reports will provide insights into consumer behavior and overall economic health as the third quarter progresses.