TD Research discusses the BoJ policy trajectory and flags a risk for a surprise from the BoJ.

"While we think the BOJ making a YCC move imminently has decreased, we also think that the BOJ will never make a move when the market expects it," TD notes.

"In line with this, we think it is worth holding some small JPY upside into this month's BOJ meeting though we recently stopped out of our USDJPY short (we will consider re-engaging however)," TD adds.