ANZ Research discusses its latest outlook for the Fed rates trajectory.

"Our baseline view is that the Fed is on an extended pause into the middle of next year before it will gradually ease rates by 50bp, subject to how data evolve in coming months, particularly the evidence on inflation pass-through," ANZ notes.

"We judge price shocks have not driven a persistent acceleration in broader inflation, while there is some evidence that the inflationary threats of recent price shocks are waning. Moderating wage settlements, well-anchored inflation expectations, gradually slowing median and trimmed mean inflation all support this conclusion. An extended pause should ensure inflation returns to target," ANZ adds.

• EUR/USD off session lows to trade broadly flat, ranges tight (1.1410–1.1450) with catalysts lacking

• Market reluctant to chase EUR upside evidenced by backing off from post-payrolls squeeze high at 1.1473

• 1.1473 now the key near-term, break opens up 1.15. Failure keeps downside risks in play

• Light data calendar reinforces consolidation bias into US.. CPI (14 July)

• Support at 1.1350–1.1360, then 1.1300–1.1320
EURUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the scope for another round of JPY intervention by Japan's MoF.

"The risk of intervention reduces the demand for being long USD/JPY as a carry trade. And the MoF has enough FX reserves to perform over 15 more FX interventions of the size it did during April and May. With USD/JPY clearing the important 162 level, however, the key battleground for the exchange rate in the 162-164 region has opened up. The decline in USD/JPY over the past year has now reached double digits accelerating its upward pressure on inflation. This will anger voters. While the government is already doing quite a bit to relieve inflation pressures on households including subsidised retail energy, fuel and utility bills, Japan’s households know a higher USD/JPY will eat into these subsidies," CACIB notes.

"In the end, Japan benefits from a weak JPY and so has to manage the political and economic realities around the currency. The weak JPY is boosting company profits, exports and importantly is helping lift domestic investment to the levels Takaichi wants to see during her tenure. So we think Japan’s authorities will continue to manage a weak JPY but avoid USD/JPY moving above 164 in the long term," CACIB adds.

• USD/CAD back near recent highs. Last week’s hold above 1.4140 pivot keeps tone constructive

• Price action consoliating now after the unwind of the NFP-led dip to 1.4151

• Near-term range defined at 1.4140-1.4250

• Bias to range trade into U.S. CPI (Jul 14), breakout needed to shift stance

• Light data calendar near-term reinforces range dynamics
USD/CAD hourly


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

Bank of America Global Research discusses USD/JPY technical outlook.

"USDJPY's breakout above 161.95 advances the secular uptrend in favor of it continuing toward ~175. Specifically, two measured moves have estimated a secular target area of 174.61-176.56. A monthly candle close above ~162 would strengthen the signal. Given BoJ intervention risk, ideally price remains above the May 2026 low at 155," BofA notes.

"The RSI has risen above 65 and the MACD crossed up while above the zero line. Both suggest the rally can persist. Forthcoming upside targets include the 61.8% measured move extension at ~163.95, followed by 166.46 and 170. A weekly close below 155.04 reduces uptrend conviction," BofA adds.

• Shares of Michael Saylor's Strategy drop 4.4% after the company discloses it sold 3,588 bitcoin last week

• MSTR's bitcoin purchases and sales have become a key barometer of sentiment toward the crypto industry

• Any sale is often interpreted as a sign that confidence in the sector is weakening, a perception that can in turn weigh on MSTR's own prospects

• "Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the Bitcoin," Saylor, one of bitcoin's most influential evangelists, once posted on X

• MSTR is still the biggest corporate holder of bitcoin, however

• The bitcoin accumulator had nearly $52 bln worth of bitcoin on its balance sheet, as of Sunday, according to Reuters calculations based on company filings

• The stock has lost over a third of its value so far this year

(Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru)

Goldman Sachs Research revises its USD/JPY forecasts higher.

"We see no reason for the upward trend in USD/JPY to stop without an unexpected negative US growth shock or a BoJ pivot towards more aggressive policy tightening...Intervention can slow the move and buy time for a potential shift in the macro that then leads to sustained Yen appreciation. But without that, the impact ultimately proves short-lived with diminishing effect, and we think that either a recession or more rapid BoJ hikes look unlikely over the coming year.

That implies that the trend higher in USD/JPY should extend, even if there are additional rounds of intervention that successfully reset the exchange rate to lower levels and suppress vol for some time," GS notes.

"Therefore, we have revised up our forecasts to 162, 163, 165 in 3, 6, 12 months (vs. 160, 158, 155 previously).," GS adds.

• Cable has traded a 21 pip range since the London open; 1.3329-1.3350

• 1.3329 is also the low water-mark since Friday's 1.3380 high

• Pound last week rose 1.1% vs USD, its biggest weekly gain in three months

• UK June construction sector PMI 38.4 vs 40.0 forecast

• U.S. June ISM services index due at 1400 GMT; 54 forecast

• Burnham is expected to replace Starmer as UK prime minister on July 20

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD FX option implied volatility has taken another leg lower since last weeks US NFP data

• Benchmark 1-month expiry falls from 7.8 prior to 7.0 since, while other dates follow suit

• Paring of event risk premium, weaker USD and spot away from the mid 0.6800 danger zone are all weighing

• The 1-month expiry now trades below past 1-month realised volatility and its fair value measure at 7.75

• Obviously realised vol will fall if AUD/USD realised volatility stays low, but offers potential value if it doesn't

• It's also worth noting that the long term low for 1-month implied vol is 6.5 from December 2025 and 2020

• Vols may struggle to break prior lows. Low implied vol reduces the cost of hedging via vanilla FX options
1M AUD VOL


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY (+0.5%) pushing back towards recent high at 162.84

• Little evidence of MoF intervention so far, keeping dip-buying appetite intact

• Though source reports suggest MoF may look to surprise yen shorts

• Macro backdrop is still supportive as firmer risk tone and UST yields underpin topside

• But given the intervention risk, the lean remains asymmetrically skewed towards a corrective pullback

• Meanwhile, with U.S. CPI (July 14) ahead, topside chasing remains unattractive given event risk
USDJPY daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• A nervous market had braced for official USD/JPY intervention during Friday's thinned US holiday trade - it never came

• USD/JPY has bounced back into the low 161s, recovering fromThursday-Friday's slide from mid-162s to a low of 160.49

• Broader FX implied vol is easing as USD momentum fades and the summer lull bites — 1-month vol slips to 7.1 from 7.65 pre-NFP

• However, it remains a fair way from recent 4-year lows at 6.1, leaving room for further vol compression

• But the options market is not standing down on intervention risk — JPY calls continue to command a hefty premium over puts

• 1-month 25 delta risk reversals are 1.5 from 1.7 Thursday - highest since USD/JPY's early May intervention drop to 155.00

• The message from options is clear: volatility may be falling, but the market is not ready to dismiss the threat of Tokyo stepping in
USD/JPY FX option implied volatility


USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded a 38 pip range thus far Monday; 1.3331-1.3369

• 1.3331 is also the low water-mark since Friday's high of 1.3380

• Bids likely near 1.3300 (1.3297 was Thursday's NY session low, pre-NFP data)

• Pound last week racked up its biggest weekly gain vs USD since early April

• BoE will publish its half-yearly Financial Stability Report on Tuesday

• EasyJet ready to accept £5.5 billion takeover bid from U.S. firm Castlelake

GBPUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/THB testing 33.30 resistance, higher DXY and USD/JPY underpin

• Pair last at 33.28-31, traded amid 33.16-33.30 range so far

• Clean break above 33.30 risks fresh squeeze back to 33.40, 33.50

• USD/JPY breaks 162.0 handle, last at 162.06-11

• DXY floats above 101.0 again, last at 101.0, traded 101.03 high
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Monday July 6

• EUR/USD: 1.1370-80 (540M), 1.1400-10 (2.6BLN), 1.1450 (1.4BLN), 1.1500 (2.5BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8000 (210M), 0.8100 (591M). EUR/CHF: 0.9225 (307M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3350 (427M). AUD/NZD: 1.2200 (201M)

• AUD/USD: 0.6885-90 (961M), 0.6900 (298M), 0.6940-50 (529M), 0.7000 (754M), 0.7025 (600M)

• USD/CAD: 1.4150 (200M), 1.4200-05 (310M).

• USD/JPY: 160.50 (2.6BLN), 161.00 (1.1BLN), 161.25 (550M), 161.50 (1BLN), 161.75 (3.2BLN), 162.00 (1.3BLN)

• EUR/JPY: 184.45-55 (459M). AUD/JPY: 115.00-05 (609M)(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD down 0.2% in Asia as risk rally pauses, stocks drop

• Wall Street futures pare gains, Nikkei -1.2% as traders mull Fed rate path

• AUD likely to remain supported on dips as Fed rate hike bets wane

• Last week's soft U.S. jobs data will continue to weigh on USD

• AUD recovery from 200-day MA currently at 0.6869 technically positive

• Interim supports at 0.6910-15, 0.6885-90; resistance 0.6950, 0.6975-80

• Asia range 0.69225-0.69465
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/SGD edging higher, in line with pop higher in USD/JPY and DXY

• Pair last at 1.2923-28, traded amid 1.2913-25 range so far

• Nearby resistance at 1.2930, break risks squeeze to 1.2950

• USD/JPY last at 161.80-85 vs 161.32 early low, bullish bias intact

• Intervention risk may see setback but unable to reverse uptrend

• Hedging related interests continue to underpin

• DXY last at 100.97, up from 100.84 early Asian low
SGD

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• GBP/USD wilts to 1.3354 after opening 1.3369; well-capped

• Bollinger uptrend channel rejected two rally attempts Thur-Fri

• Just above it, 200 and 100 DMA converge around 1.3400 barrier

• Additionally, Ichimoku cloud reinforces psychological barrier

• Barring a strong negative-USD catalyst, GBP/USD may recoil

• Consolidation toward 21 DMA 1.3303 appears likely ahead
GBP


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY up 0.1% in Asia after closing 0.2% higher Fri as dip buyers support

• Speculators boldened by absence of Tokyo intervention but remain wary

• BOJ's slow rate hikes, Japan fiscal concerns counter intervention fears

• Japan's government blueprint nudges BOJ to fuel demand, clouding rates path

• Japan outlined large spending plans in its latest policy blueprint last week

• Waning Fed rate hike bets likely to cap rallies

• Resistance 161.65-70, 161.95-162.00, support 161.00-10, 160.50-60

• Friday range 160.485-161.525, Asia 161.35-161.58
JPY:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD reverts to 1.1435 after Mon blip up to 1.1446; capped

• Steering away from 21 DMA resistance 1.1468 again

• That short-term chart barrier has previously deflected rallies

• Bollinger downtrend channel at 1.1387 beckons to short-sellers

• EUR/USD weakness persists despite US NFP miss denting Fed hike odds

• Germany budget proposes huge increase in borrowing
EUR


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD to stay bid on dips after closing 0.25% higher on Friday

• Buoyed by repricing of Fed rate hike bets after soft U.S. jobs data

• Supported by risk rally on waning global rate hike expectations

• Lower energy prices, easing inflation fears boost risk appetite

• MSCI gauge of global stocks up 0.4% Fri, Wall Street futures advance

• Europe's STOXX 600 climb 0.6% to another record high

• AUD recovery from 200-day MA currently at 0.6869 technically positive

• Interim supports at 0.6910-15, 0.6885-90; resistance 0.6950, 0.6975-80

• Friday range 0.6911-0.6949; Monday Asia range 0.6940-0.69465
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Gold sees sharp rebound post softer U.S. payrolls, rates repricing driving the move

• Precious metals tracking Fed hike expectations closely, dovish shift providing a tailwind

• Unwind of Warsh-driven hawkish sell-off opens path back toward $4370–80

• Near-term, $4300–4400 marks first meaningful resistance zone; expect supply to build

• Bullish bias holds while above $3940–60, break below would likely invalidate dip-buying setup
gold chart


gold vs Fed july pricing


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

(Repeats with no changes)

July 3 (Reuters) -

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Friday July 3

• EUR/USD: 1.1325-35 (960M), 1.1340-50 (943M), 1.1370-75 (2.7BLN)

• 1.1380-85 (947M), 1.1390-00 (1.15BLN), 1.1425-30 (897M), 1.1445-50 (967M)

• 1.1460-65 (438M), 1.1475-80 (504M), 1.1500 (2.03BLN), 1.1525 (298M)

• 1.1550 (355M), 1.1600 (2.02BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY price action remains skittish, keeping markets alert to intervention risks

• Spot hit an intra-day low of 160.48, but volume is well below those seen during prior interventions

• JP FinMin issues fresh verbal warning, notes close coordination with U.S. on forex, even during U.S. holiday

• Expect traders to stay cautious on the long side given asymmetric downside risk from possible intervention

• Should keep near-term asymmetrical skew leaning towards a sharper corrective move

• A coordinated intervention with the U.S. would materially increase impact versus unilateral MoF action

• Initial support sits at 159.63–160.01 (55DMA cluster)

• In a credible intervention scenario, downside could extend toward 156.50-157.00, aligning with the 200DMA zone
USD/JPY 15 min


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• EUR edging higher but still capped ahead of 1.1472 (post-NFP high)

• Market reluctant to chase topside - softer payrolls insufficient to sustain upside momentum

• Latest uptick not corroborated by EU–US rate spreads given no meaningful compression

• Sintra takeaways: growing ECB faction comfortable with holding rates steady

• Recent downside inflation surprises also raise the bar for any additional ECB tightening

• Macro backdrop remains a modest headwind for EUR

• Resistance: 1.1500, then 1.1580 (pre-Fed level)

• Support: 1.1350–60, with a deeper cushion at 1.1300–20
eu vs spreads


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))