Danske Research previews this week's July FOMC meeting.

"We expect the Federal Reserve to remain on hold in the July meeting, in line with consensus. Markets price in 20-25% probability for a hike. Without new projections or forward guidance from Warsh, the focus will be on the vote split. We think the most likely outcome is 2-4 votes in favour of a hike," Danske notes.

"Last week, we recommended a tactical short EUR/USD spot position ahead of the July rate decision(s). We see an asymmetric outcome space around the meeting, where a unanimous hold would not materially affect hike expectations in later meetings, but a surprise hike or a close-call split decision could drive a hawkish repricing of USD real rates and support broad USD FX," Danske adds.