The dollar drew haven support on Thursday from surging oil prices with President Donald Trump warning Iran to make a deal “before it is too late” after threatening further strikes on Wednesday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned of more retaliatory strikes if there are further attacks on Iranian industries. Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed the Middle East crisis, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also spoke with Iran on Strait of Hormuz navigation risks. OPEC+ is likely to weigh a further oil output increase when eight members meet on Sunday, two OPEC+ sources said. WTI oil pulled back from its session high near $114/bbl after Iran state media said it was drafting a monitoring protocol with Oman for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said the economic outlook is quite uncertain though the central bank will respond with appropriate policy changes. Logan also laid out paths for the U.S. central bank to reduce the size of its balance sheet and said private-credit risks remain contained but warrant monitoring following Blue Owl’s move to cap redemptions in two retail-focused funds. In data, jobless claims fell in the latest week while a separate report showed the trade deficit widened less than forecast in February. The March jobs report is slated for Friday.

The dollar index held above its 21-day moving average, but momentum was restrained by thin holiday liquidity and muted positioning ahead of the weekend.

EUR/USD fell in risk-off trade, with a falling RSI and move below its 21-day moving average leaving bearish technical signals in place.

USD/JPY held a modest gain near the top of the 158.55–159.74 range as oil supports the dollar and geopolitics keep risks elevated, with the move above its 21-day moving average putting 160 in focus. GBP remained under pressure into the weekend amid fragile risk sentiment and ongoing geopolitical noise, with rebounds lacking conviction despite seasonally stronger tailwinds.

AUD/USD rebounded from overnight lows but downside momentum persists and falling RSIs keep the near-term bias cautious despite a potentially constructive candle. Treasury yields eased up to 2 basis point;s with the 2s-10s curve holding steady at +51.1bp.

The S&P 500 fell 0.11%. WTI rose over 10% as supply worries caused significant backwardation of the curve.

Gold fell 1.9% while copper slipped 0.9%.

Heading toward the close: EUR/USD -0.43%, USD/JPY +0.53%, GBP/USD -0.61%, AUD/USD -0.29%, DXY +0.36%, EUR/JPY +0.08%, GBP/JPY -0.10%, AUD/JPY +0.19%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)