eFX Apex
The Institutional-Grade Data Hub
- Plus: Discretionary Trades
- Edge: Sentiment Trades
- Alpha: Systematic Trades
- Apex: Full Big Data Stream
Goldman Sachs Research discusses EUR outlook.
"Credit-Based Pressures on EUR Nearing Their Limit: Widening in OATs has outstripped fundamentals and the French presidential election is over six months away; fiscal trajectories elsewhere in Europe are more favourable; aggregate spreads entered the energy shock on firmer footing; growth is resilient; European banks are better capitalised to deal with sovereign bond stress now than in previous episodes; and the ECB if well-equipped with anti-fragmentation tools if necessary. EURUSD's range-break lower has likely exacerbated the move, and we view recent broad Dollar strength as likely to fade near term," GS notes.
"Divided Outlook on G10 Crosses: A more durable shift in ECB hike pricing may dampen the Euro’s recovery, and over longer horizons we think the outlook on G10 crosses remains heavily divided – we expect continued Euro downside versus high-carry energy exporters AUD and NOK, but argue the outlook is brighter versus CHF and GBP," GS adds.