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TDUX
Oct 08 - 12:55 PM
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Goldman Sachs: Credit-Based Pressures on EUR Nearing Their Limit; Divided Outlook on EUR G10 Crosses

By eFXdata  —  Oct 08 - 11:30 AM

Goldman Sachs Research discusses EUR outlook.

"Credit-Based Pressures on EUR Nearing Their Limit: Widening in OATs has outstripped fundamentals and the French presidential election is over six months away; fiscal trajectories elsewhere in Europe are more favourable; aggregate spreads entered the energy shock on firmer footing; growth is resilient; European banks are better capitalised to deal with sovereign bond stress now than in previous episodes; and the ECB if well-equipped with anti-fragmentation tools if necessary. EURUSD's range-break lower has likely exacerbated the move, and we view recent broad Dollar strength as likely to fade near term," GS notes.

"Divided Outlook on G10 Crosses: A more durable shift in ECB hike pricing may dampen the Euro’s recovery, and over longer horizons we think the outlook on G10 crosses remains heavily divided – we expect continued Euro downside versus high-carry energy exporters AUD and NOK, but argue the outlook is brighter versus CHF and GBP," GS adds.

Source:
Goldman Sachs Research/Market Commentary

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