ANZ Research previews next week's August RBA meeting.

"AUD OIS is pricing almost no chance of a 25bp move at next week’s RBA meeting, with around 10bp of tightening priced by November and 15bp by mid-2027. A hawkish hold is unlikely to shift pricing materially, as markets will need the next few monthly CPI prints and the Q3 CPI release in October before reassessing the policy path. The main source of surprise could be the vote split, particularly any dissent in favour of a hike, which could add modestly to hawkish pricing," BofA notes.

Given current expectations are so low, an unexpected hike would likely push AUD/USD well above 0.71– 0.7125 and establish a higher trading range, although this is not our base case. AUD/NZD touched a high of 1.20 this week, with key support around 1.19. The move was supported by a softer New Zealand unemployment print, which suggests downside is limited for now. A more hawkish-than-expected RBA next week could see the cross test near-term resistance at 1.2030–1.2060, with a break above that opening the way toward 1.21," BofA adds.