Danske Research discusses its expectations for the US-China trade developments into the G20 meeting. and sees a 60% probability of a ceasefire after the G20 meeting over the weekend.
"This should be positive for risk markets. We see roughly five reasons.
1. Trump initiated the talks this time....
2. Trump’s hand starting to weaken?...
3. Further escalation could back-fire.
4. China unlikely to increase concessions even if Trump adds more tariffs.
5. China will demand a ceasefire to enter a new round of negotiations," Danske argues.