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Thomson Reuters
Apr 11 - 12:12 PM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-USD/JPY Rebound, Like US Rates, Faces Daunting April Highs
First appeared on eFXplus on Apr 11 - 10:36 AM

The unexpected drop in U.S. jobless claims to 50-year lows and above-forecast PPI are reinforcing the rebound in U.S. yields and USD/JPY prices nL1N21T0FG, but clearing April's high looks daunting unless U.S. trade conflicts are resolved and upcoming data bolster the global growth outlook.
USD/JPY's 110.84 low Wednesday on soft CPI data nL1N21S1JV held above the daily kijun and cloud top at 110.81/78, setting the stage for today's rebound above yesterday's high and Tuesday's low at 111.29, as well as the 10-DMA at 111.35.
A close above the 10-DMA would favor a run toward this month's 111.82 high.
The rebound in 10-year Treasury yields comes after Wednesday's 2.46 percent low held the 38.2 percent Fibo of the March 28 to April 5 rise.
April's 2.54 percent peak was capped by the January 3-4 flash-crash lows and is now key resistance and a potential spoiler for USD/JPY bulls near the analogous April 5 high at 111.82.
With the Fed and BOJ on hold for the foreseeable future, one-month USD/JPY implied vols have tumbled to their lowest since 2014 and large options expiries bracket recent price ranges, particularly with sizeable 112 expiries into month-end.
Tonight's China March -- post-Lunar New Year -- trade data is the next event risk.

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Source:
Thomson Reuters IFR Markets

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