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Bank of America Global Research previews this week's US jobs report for the month of June.
"After three solid months, we expect Jun payrolls to also rise by a robust 110k (private: 120k), supported by benign claims and strong ADP data. That said, we see downside risks: May's surge in leisure & hospitality may have been driven by the World Cup or Memorial Day timing, and if it was the latter, Jun could see payback. We could also see a large reversal in local gov't jobs after May's outsized gain. We expect the u-rate to remain at 4.3%, though continued strength in HH employment could push it down to 4.2%," BofA notes.
"A strong report would likely move markets closer to our call for three hikes in '26," BofA adds.