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Jan 21 - 07:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-FX Option Turn May Now Embolden EUR/USD Bulls

By Richard Pace  —  Jan 21 - 05:52 AM

FX options reflected the recent lack of volatility and direction in EUR/USD, with their premiums testing crisis lows and lacking any near-term directional premium nL1N2JV1F8, but that's starting to change and may embolden bulls.

Implied volatility is meeting some mild demand across all maturities - benchmark one-month expiry paid 6.1 Thursday from 5.95 Wednesday, and one-year 6.275 from 6.15.

Risk-reversal contracts charge a volatility premium for option strikes in whichever direction they feel is most vulnerable in the FX rate.
EUR call premium (topside strikes) came lower over recent weeks, with one-month expiry even flipping in favour of EUR puts (downside strikes) last week.
However, that one-month risk reversal has now regained a small EUR call/USD put premium.

Outright demand for EUR call options is also more apparent Thursday - options that would allow holders to buy EUR/USD at higher levels if spot were above the chosen strikes.
They should also benefit from any further pick-up in implied volatility.

From current levels, the risk-versus-reward factor for long EUR/USD options seems reasonable nL1N2JW0OA.
Related comment nL1N2JW0II

For more click on FXBUZ

EUR/USD 1-month and 1-year implied volatility Click here

EUR/USD 1-3-12-month expiry option risk reversals - Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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