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Oct 19 - 02:55 PM

ANZ: Robust Physical Gold Demand Anticipated Amid Festive Season; Positive Outlook for Q4

By eFXdata  —  Oct 19 - 02:30 PM

Synopsis: ANZ presents a bullish forecast for gold, emphasizing the solidifying physical demand as India approaches its festive season. A significant uptick in jewelry demand is anticipated, coinciding with a promising monsoon season and cultural factors, potentially driving stronger market performance for gold in the fourth quarter.

Key Takeaways:

  1. Narrowing Gold Spot Discount: The diminishing discount on India's gold spot price, now nearly at par with international benchmarks, indicates market tightness and increased domestic demand, likely influenced by the upcoming festive and wedding seasons.

  2. Retail Restocking: Indian retailers are actively restocking gold in anticipation of a surge in jewelry demand. This restocking ahead of peak cultural festivities suggests a short-term demand boost in the domestic market.

  3. Agricultural Prosperity Boosts Demand: Improved rainfall in September forecasts a potentially successful monsoon season, crucial for rural prosperity in India. Given that rural areas contribute approximately 50% of the country's total gold demand, agricultural affluence could significantly impact gold market dynamics.

  4. Gold Import Dynamics: Despite a 5% lag in year-to-date gold imports compared to the previous year, expectations for Q4 are bullish. To align with last year's levels, a substantial 242 tonnes of gold imports would be necessary between September and December, underscoring the potential for a significant demand spike.

  5. Market Optimism for Gold: The confluence of cultural, economic, and environmental factors creates a robust foundation for gold's market strength as 2023 concludes. This landscape presents optimistic prospects for investors and market participants.

Conclusion: ANZ's analysis points to a strong market for gold in the upcoming months, buoyed by cultural factors and favorable economic conditions in India. As the nation prepares for its festive season, coupled with potential agricultural prosperity, the stage is set for an uptick in gold demand and a corresponding market response. Investors and stakeholders in the gold market may find promising opportunities in this anticipated demand surge, highlighting the fourth quarter as a critical period for market activity.

ANZ Research/Market Commentary


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