Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for today's FOMC policy meeting.
"We think that the bigger risk on the day would be a ‘hawkish surprise’ similar to the June policy meeting. Indeed, evidence that the recent economic data releases have started to shift the balance of risks at the FOMC in favour of policy normalization in coming months could encourage the front-loading of rate hike expectations and boost UST yields. The USD could regain some ground on back of growing rate and yields advantage," CACIB notes.
"Depending on how resilient risk appetite is in the face of tightening US financial conditions, any USD gains would manifest themselves vs low-yielders like the JPY (under risk on) or risk-correlated currencies like the GBP (under risk off)," CACIB adds.