Explore eFXplus Derived Data That Drive Results
A Data Partner of:
Refinitiv
-

Insights

Guest Access

 
-

Subscriber Access

 
-
All
EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
NZD / USD
USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jan 21 - 03:55 PM
  • IMM spec USD long reduced by 1/3 in Jan 12-18 period; $IDX +0.12%

  • EUR specs +18,579 contracts now long 24,584; dip bought on 0.38% drop

  • $JPY -0.62% in period, specs +6,646 contracts now -80,879

  • GBP$ specs +28,919 contract now short 247 contracts amid 0.3% GBP dip

  • CAD pos flips to long specs +14,868; AUD specs +3,032 sht reduced to -88.4k

  • BTC held in tight 41-44k range specs sold 172 contracts now short 549

 

IMM Position Table: Click here

Majors w/IMM Perf Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jan 21 - 02:55 PM

The dollar index fell on Friday as Treasury yields weakened on concerns that mounting losses in U.S. stocks, which breached key supports, could deter the Fed to from signaling more aggressive action to fight inflation following next week's meeting.

The dollar's losses came primarily against low-yielding, safe-haven currencies such as the euro, yen and Swiss franc while gaining against the high-beta or risk-sensitive aussie, sterling and kiwi.

Encapsulating Friday's migration out of risk and into safety, GBP/JPY fell 0.6%, with sterling also suffering in the wake of unexpectedly weak UK retail sales nL8N2U118R, which echoed similar shock from the U.S. nAPN0DT3Z2 a week earlier.

The recent data disappointments, combined with rising risk aversion, challenge the notion that Fed and BoE can subdue rampant inflation with a barrage of rate hikes without financial or economic consequences, even as the ECB nL8N2U01N7 and BOJ nL4N2U00CX refrain.

EUR/USD was up 0.3% on Friday but down 0.6% on the week.

The S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average in intraday trade, after the Nasdaq closed below its 200-DMA on Thursday, weighing on Treasury yields and presenting a potential a reprieve for EUR/USD longs nL1N2U11JE if sustained.

Sterling was down 0.25% but found support at the 100-DMA, likely aided by BoE policymaker Catherine Mann's defense of the BoE's tightening program nL8N2U13HF.

Sterling has been consolidating rapid gains that followed the BoE's first rate hike in December.
It peaked last week after becoming overbought and failing to overcome the 200-DMA.

Focus is now on the Jan.
26 Fed and Feb.
3 BoE meetings and recent risk aversion nL1N2U11CO.

USD/JPY was down 0.35% due to tumbling Treasury-JGB yields spreads and stock market angst favoring the haven yen.

Prices are probing Bolli band and cloud support, whose staying power looks tied to the rout in U.S. stocks abating.
An S&P 500 close below its 200-DMA would put USD/JPY's January lows by Fibo props in play nL1N2U11FA.

The Australian dollar was down 0.5% with its risk-proxy role hurting it amid the global slide in stocks.

Bitcoin and ether fell roughly 6% and 7.4%, respectively, with bitcoin now near the 50% Fibo of its incredible 3,122-69,000 2018-21 advance nL1N2U11P5.

Global PMIs for January are the main data focus before the Fed on Wednesday.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 21 - 01:50 PM
  • EUR/USD holds a tight range in Europe's am, NY opens near 1.1325

  • Pair rallies to 1.13595 on EBS in early trade on broad US$ weakness

  • Drop in US rates EDH2US10YT=RR help keep the dollar heavy

  • Yen bid sinks EUR/JPY toward 128.90, helps limit EUR/USD's upside

  • EUR/USD holds above the 55-DMA & is up near 0.30% late in the session

  • Risk aversion might be EUR/USD longs' best hope for Fed meeting nL1N2U11JE

  • For more click on FXBUZ














eurusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jan 21 - 11:45 AM
  • USD/CAD back near NorAm open +0.2% at 1.2528; NorAm range 1.2554-15

  • Flurry higher amid equity/tech selloff short-lived

  • BoC seen hiking rates 25bp at Jan 26 meeting helps anchor CAD

  • Close abv 10-DMA 1.2540 adds to bullish case, next res dly cloud base 1.2612

  • Support near flat 200-DMA, Friday low around 1.2500, then up TL by 1.2467

  • BOCWATCH indicates a 83% chance of BoC rate hike Jan 26, as per CADOIS

CAD Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 21 - 10:44 AM

Credit Suisse discusses USD/JPY technical outlook and see a scope for a move towards 112.13 in the near-term.

"USDJPY back under pressure and below 113.99 can see a retest of the recent low and 38.2% retracement of the rally from September at 113.58/48. Below here can see weakness extend to test the December lows, seen starting at 113.15 and stretching down to 112.56/54, with a better floor looked for here," CS notes. 

"Should weakness extend, this would warn of further weakness to the potential uptrend from January 2021, currently seen at 112.13," CS adds.

Source:
Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jan 21 - 10:40 AM

GBP/USD limped toward the weekend, falling to a nine-session low of 1.3553 on Friday as unexpectedly weak UK retail sales nL8N2U118R encouraged position pruning before the Fed meeting next week, within the context of a BoE outlook that remains sterling supportive while cable remains above key 1.3463 support.

The tone for UK rate normalization remains upbeat in the run-up to the Feb 3 BoE meeting, with GBPOIS markets BOEWATCH projecting a UK hike next month and Sonia 3-month futures 0#son3: indicating a total increase of 100bps in 2022.

In the interim, the Fed policy statement on Jan.
26 -- coinciding with a Canadian rate announcement the same day -- could set the tone for markets before the MPC takes the spotlight on Feb.
3 as global policy makers address the post-pandemic inflation surge
.

The BoE's near-term rate path is expected to mirror the Fed's in 2022, with the UK's earlier liftoff providing an underlying bid for sterling.

Bouts of weakness, such as the slide cable began in mid-January, will focus on key support, currently at 1.3463, the 50% Fib of 1.3175-1.3749 range established after the BoE began hiking in December.

For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 21 - 09:33 AM

Bank of America Global Research flags bullish USD signal from the latest readings of its quant models.

"The USD is becoming more bid in US and UK trading hours. The USD started 2022 on the back-foot with several USD uptrends reversing, captured by USD/G10 breadth falling from +7 to +2. The USD sell-off was led by supply during US trading hours and followed by Asia hours. To the contrary, UK-hours investors remained USD buyers so far in 2022," BofA notes. 

"With the US-hour USD supply flow appears to be reversing course at end of last week and all three time zones still cumulatively long USD over the past three months, we think there is still plenty of upside potential for the USD," BofA adds. 

Source:
BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Jan 21 - 09:04 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for next week's FOMC and BoC policy meetings.

"Ahead of next week’s Fed and BoC meetings, rate hike repricing has gone into overdrive with investors already expecting four rate hikes from the FOMC and more than five rate hikes from the BoC this year. In addition, markets see a c.70% chance of a 25bp BoC hike next week and even a 50bp Fed hike in March," CACIB notes. 

"There is a risk that neither the Fed nor the BoC will live up to the hawkish market expectations, in part given the pandemic’s recent impact on their economies. While the USD and CAD may cede some of their recent gains as a result, both should remain ‘buy on dips’, given both currencies’ rate advantage, the USD’s safe-haven appeal and the CAD’s link to energy prices," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jan 21 - 07:25 AM
  • Equities ESv1, copper HGv1, AUD/JPY drop as investors seek safe assets

  • Interest rates EDH2US10YT=RR>AU3YT=RR sink due to risk-off sentiment

  • AUD/USD falls below the 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs; nears the rising channel base

  • Bull signals from Jan 20 are negated, bearish signals are in place again

  • Daily RSI turns down, monthly RSI diverged and is falling as well

  • Jan 18 daily low, daily cloud base are supports below the channel base

  • Break of the daily low, cloud likely to trigger stop loss selling

  • For more click on FXBUZ


audusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 21 - 06:05 AM
  • 0.7195 option expiry helps to anchor AUD/USD following its drop from 0.7275

  • The size of the strike for the 10am ET NY cut is A$1.1 billion nL1N2U10BL

  • 0.7275 was intra-week high Thursday -- before U.S. equity losses hurt AUD

  • See: nL1N2U02XV. 0.7183 was two-day low in Asia (0.7177 = Wednesday's low)

  • Risk-sensitive AUD supported by further gains for Chinese iron ore futures

  • See: nL1N2U10C7. Iron ore is Australia's single-biggest export earner

AUDUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Jan 21 - 05:10 AM
  • EUR/USD 1.1322-45 EBS range in Europe

  • Range since Nov 30 is 1.1221-1.1483, EUR/USD opened this year at 1.1369

  • The halfway point for range since Nov 30 is 1.1335

  • EUR/USD now stuck near the centre of that range

  • FX markets suppressed ahead Fed monetary policy on Jan 26

  • SNB seems to have taken control of ECB's currency nL1N2U00KX

  • SNB intervention could trap EUR/USD for a while nL1N2U00EY




EURUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jan 21 - 04:20 AM
  • USD/JPY, on Friday in Asia, dropped from 114.15 to find support at 113.63

  • EBS flow data shows sustained buying since the Asia 113.63 low into London

  • USD/JPY still in danger of a break under 113.38-87 daily cloud nL1N2U10C0

  • 1.2bn worth of 113.80-90 option strikes set to expire at Friday's NY cut

  • A further 1.1bn NY cut expiries are at 113.50-55 could at like a magnet

  • USD/JPY 30/60-day correlations with EUR/JPY are both under +0.50

  • Some in BOJ: upward price pressure building up - Dec minutes nT9N2SX02O

EBS Flow Data Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jan 21 - 02:40 AM
  • Cable holds sub-1.36 after much worse than expected UK Dec retail sales data

  • Down 3.6% MM vs -0.6% f/c, down 0.9% YY vs +3.4% f/c nL8N2U118R

  • 1.3579 was three-day low for GBP/USD in Asia, courtesy of risk aversion

  • U.S. equities fell into Thursday's close, with Nasdaq closing down 1.3%

  • See: nL1N2U02XVnL8N2U117E. GBP is risk-sensitive; USD is a safer-haven

  • 1.3661 was Thursday's high (when U.S. equities were in positive territory)

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jan 21 - 02:05 AM
  • Good chance of a break under the daily cloud, that spans 113.38-87 region

  • Failure to close above the broken 114.92 Fibo has left bulls trapped

  • 114.92 Fibo is a 50% retrace of the 116.35 to 113.48 January EBS drop

  • Bull trap set when a market breaks above a tech level but quickly reverses

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. EUR/JPY sees a 128.58-129.01 range on Friday

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Jan 21 - 01:50 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.1250 (1.05BLN), 1.1450 (266M), 1.1470-75 (582M)

  • 1.1500 (283M)

  • USD/JPY: 113.50-55 (1.0BLN), 113.80-90 (1.26BLN)

  • 114.00 (266M), 115.00 (620M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.2450-60 (720M), 1.2500 (655M), 1.2545-50 (1.15BLN)

  • 1.2555-60 (1.52BLN), 1.2600 (1.02BLN), 1.2650 (420M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.7195-00 (1.2BLN), 0.7270 (343M)

  • AUD/JPY: 83.50 (295M), 85.00 (448M)

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Ewen Chew  —  Jan 21 - 12:25 AM
  • AUD/USD swept lower to 0.7190, veering into bearish path

  • Fri close below 0.7187 engages Bollinger downtrend channel

  • If base of Ichimoku Cloud 0.7157 breached, more bearish still

  • That would open the way to Fibo support at 0.7126

  • Risk aversion hits stocks, bonds, oil, cryptocurrencies

  • US Treasury yields slide as havens sought; 10y down to 1.765%

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 20 - 10:15 PM
  • EUR/USD opened -0.28% at 1.1311 after a bearish outside day

  • It eased to 1.1301 early Asia before tracking higher the rest of the morning

  • The 10-year US yield eased to 1.77% and underpinned the EUR/USD

  • EUR/USD traded as high as 1.1335 before settling around 1.1325/30

  • Support is at a trend-line at 1.1284 with buyers tipped between 1.1230/50

  • Resistance is at the 100-day MA at 1.1481 and break renews upward pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 20 - 10:05 PM

  • GBP resilient as risk slides in Asia - oil, S&P futures & UST yields lower

  • Trades +0.05%, towards the top of a 1.3579-1.3601 range with plenty of flow

  • POLL-BoE to raise rates again in February as inflation surges nW1N2T603B

  • UK consumer confidence hit by rising inflation and rates nL8N2U03CA

  • Charts; 21 day moving average rises, 21 day Bollinger bands contract

  • Momentum studies and 5 & 10 DMAs fall - mixed signals suggests a range

  • 1.3562 21 DMA and 1.3528, 38.2% December-January rise are pivotal support

  • Close above this week's 1.3689 high would signal a return to the uptrend

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp 2 jan 21 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 20 - 07:55 PM
  • AUD/USD has eased below 0.7200 in a risk-off start to the Asian session

  • Wall Street crumbled in the last hour of trading and selling is continuing

  • E-minis are down 0.40% and the Nikkei is down close to 2.0%

  • AUD/USD support is a a trend-line that comes in at 0.7186

  • A break below targets the Jan 7 flow at 0.7130

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 20 - 07:00 PM

  • Steady after closing -0.3% with a bearish outside day, leading USD higher

  • Dovish ECB's Lagarde nL8N2U01N7, and safe haven USD strength weighed

  • Disparity between ECB and more hawkish Fed continues to weigh on EUR/USD

  • Hard to see a significant bounce ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21 DMAs conflict, 21 day Bollinger bands expand

  • Momentum studies edge lower - neutral signals suggest range trading

  • 1.1252-1.1438 21 day Bollinger bands are viable range parameters

  • NY 1.1303-1.1358 range is initial support and resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


eur jan 21 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jan 20 - 06:20 PM

  • +0.05% early after closing -0.15%, resilient against the firmer U.S. dollar

  • PM Johnson doing all he can to remain in power - time will tell nL8N2U02N6

  • PM's issues have little market impact - BOEWATCH prices 3 Feb hike at 85.8%

  • Charts; 21 day moving average rises, 21 day Bollinger bands contract

  • Momentum studies and 5 & 10 DMAs fall - mixed signals suggests a range

  • 1.3562 21 DMA and 1.3528, 38.2% December-January rise are pivotal support

  • Close above Tuesday's 1.3689 high would signal a return to the uptrend

  • NY 1.3588-1.3661 range is initial support and resistance

For more click on FXBUZ


gbp jan 21 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jan 20 - 03:00 PM

Citi discusses its expectations for next week's FOMC policy meeting. 

"CitiFX Strategy think that even if the Fed put remains out of the money, we are moving into a ‘Fed fly’ regime," Citi notes. 

"We think in the very near-term, and at the January FOMC, the Fed may not see the need to appear yet more hawkish than is already priced," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jan 20 - 05:30 PM
  • EUR/USD opens -0.28% after EUR sold off against most currencies

  • Dovish comments from ECB President Lagarde broadly weighed on EUR

  • Lagarde emphasized that US recovery cycle was well ahead of EZ recovery

  • EUR/USD fell despite easing US yields as risk aversion intensifies nL1N2U02JL

  • It completed a bearish outside day after reversing from high at 1.1369

  • Support is at a rising trend-line that comes in at 1.1284 today

  • EUR/USD rallies likely to be capped ahead of FOMC on Jan 26

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jan 20 - 02:35 PM

The dollar fell on Thursday against high-beta currencies, which remained inspired by the Nasdaq's rebound away from 200-day moving average support during the previous session, but gained against the euro.

Treasury yields consolidated recent sharp gains to two-year highs as another batch of mostly disappointing U.S. data added details to a confused economic picture that investors are struggling to interpret.

Initial jobless claims provided the biggest surprise, rising to their highest since mid-October nL1N2TZ209 with negative implications for January's employment report.

Existing home sales also missed expectations, though, like many other indicators, the focus is on supply tightness rather than waning demand nL1N2TZ1NO.

Looming over the markets is a highly anticipated Fed meeting next week.
Recent data may make it unlikely to endorse speculation of a 50bp March rate hike or more than three or four increases this year, which may support riskier assets.

The ECB remains increasingly data-dependent nL8N2U0461 in its plans for gradual stimulus reduction and well behind the Fed and BoE to the detriment of the euro, that as Europe deals with energy insecurity and tensions with Russia over Ukraine nL1N2U00QR.

EUR/USD was down 0.2% but might hold off on any major moves until the Fed meeting.

Sterling was up 0.11%, maintaining a bullish bias due to UK data and falling COVID cases supporting the outlook for a steady stream of BOE rate hikes this year, starting with the Feb.
3 meeting nL1N2U01E7.

But prices are still consolidating huge gains capped last week by the 200-DMA.

USD/JPY was down 0.17% but off the day's low of 113.96 on EBS.
A close below 114.00, the 61.8% Fibo of the November-January rise, and the daily cloud's twist at 113.85-87 on Tuesday would raise the risk of January's low and key Fibos at 113.475/44 being retested.

The Australian dollar was up 0.46% on strong jobs data and early risk-on flows helped by fresh Chinese easing nL1N2U002I.

Bitcoin and ether rebounded roughly 4.6% and 3%, respectively.

The next key data are Monday's January PMIs.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
Page 1 2 3 4 5

Subscription

  • eFXplus
  • End-user license agreement (EULA)

About

  • About
  • Contact Us

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
© 2022 eFXdata · All Rights Reserved
!