Danske and Bank of America Global Research preview tonight's RBNZ policy meetings.

"Overnight, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to hike its Official Cash Rate by 25bp to 2.50%, in line with consensus. Markets see the move as likely, but not a fully done deal, with about 75% likelihood priced in. RBNZ was close to hiking at the previous meeting back in late May (vote split 3-3), and the rate path signalled a high chance for a hike during Q3. A hike could provide temporary support for NZD/USD, but looking further ahead, we expect the cross to trade near its current level of 0.57 over the coming year," Danske notes.

"We expect the RBNZ to increase the OCR by 25bp to 2.5% on July 8, but it's a close call and a split decision is likely. The RBNZ's projected OCR path in the May MPS suggests a July hike, and the Governor signalled further OCR increases in coming meetings. While oil prices are currently lower than the RBNZ expected in May, this largely reduces tail risks and inflation is still expected to stay well above target through 2026. Recent GDP data suggest less spare capacity when the Iran shock hit, which increases the risk of second-round effects. With inflation above target and upside risks, a risk management approach supports a hike now to a more neutral stance, reducing the risk of a more disruptive tightening later," Danske adds.