Credit Agricole has expressed a neutral outlook on EUR/USD into the year-end, believing that investors' optimism regarding the Euro (or pessimism regarding the USD) could be premature or misplaced. Here are the four reasons outlined by the bank:
Uncertain Timing of Fed Dovish Pivot: The Federal Reserve's shift to a more dovish stance remains uncertain, and this ambiguity could keep the USD supported in the coming months. Until there's a clear signal from the Fed, the strength in the USD may continue.
Peak Fed Followed by Peak ECB: If the Fed reaches its peak, it should soon be followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) doing the same. This would cap any significant widening in the EUR/USD rate spread, limiting the potential upside for the EUR/USD pair.
Potential US Economic Downturn in Q4 2023: Credit Agricole raises the concern that a U.S. economic downturn in the fourth quarter of 2023 could contribute to global cyclical headwinds. This situation could further complicate the currency dynamics between the EUR and USD.
Temporary Eurozone Growth Outperformance: Any outperformance of Eurozone growth relative to the US might be only temporary. If this occurs, the momentary strength in the EUR could soon fizzle out, keeping the EUR/USD pair within a range.
Summary: Based on these considerations, Credit Agricole expects the EUR/USD pair to remain range-bound between 1.09 and 1.12 for the foreseeable future. The bank's analysis emphasizes the uncertainties and complexities in both the US and Eurozone monetary policy and economic outlooks, leading to a cautious stance on the currency pair.