Bank of America Global Research discusses the EUR outlook in light of the ongoing acceleration in the vaccination pace in Europe.
"Part of the reason we were bearish EURUSD in the first quarter of the year was the slow start to EU vaccination. However, vaccination in Europe is finally accelerating and the EUR is strengthening again. We argue that for the EUR gains to be sustained, vaccination would have to accelerate fast enough to save at least part of the summer tourist season," BofA notes.
"Our estimates suggest that while the pace of European vaccination has doubled so far in April, it will have to triple from the March level (US pace), to be able to reopen for the tourist season in July, which is the official target. This is feasible, but not a given. In addition, vaccination passports, which most countries are resisting so far, would help tourism and the EUR, in our view," BofA adds.